German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Vows to Fight On After Historic State Election Defeat

Friedrich Merz has insisted he will remain chancellor of Germany after his party suffered its worst-ever result in a state election, failing to enter a regional assembly parliament for the first time in the country’s post-Second World War history. Sunday's losses raise questions about his position, with voters appearing increasingly doubtful that Merz, 70, can revive Germany's economy and bring down the cost of living.

The Christian Democratic Union won 4.9 per cent of the vote in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday, according to preliminary results from the state election authority, just missing the 5 per cent threshold required to be given a seat. The far-right Alternative for Germany won the contest with 38.2 per cent, while the long-dominant Social Democrats came second with 35.5 per cent. In an election in Berlin, the governing CDU was defeated by the anti-capitalist Left party.

“We can’t sugarcoat it, it was a disaster,” Mr Merz said in Berlin in a statement after exit polls were released, breaking with the past practice of chancellors speaking the day after an election. He gathered senior CDU officials at party headquarters, where he sought to gauge their support for his leadership.

Germany’s political establishment was shaken when the CDU suffered a stunning defeat to the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany two weeks ago in Saxony-Anhalt, another eastern state that could lead the first far-right government in the country since the Second World War.

The fallout has dealt a blow to the chancellorship, prompting calls among rank-and-file members to push out Mr Merz – who polls show is the least popular postwar German chancellor – after only 16 months in office. Eight CDU premiers last week sought to defuse any standoff with a declaration that they stood behind the chancellor, but many party officials are convinced that his stewardship will only cause more harm.

Mr Merz cancelled a planned trip to the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week. He will meet more party leaders on Monday and lawmakers in the CDU-led bloc on Tuesday.

Germany's weak economy is becoming a deciding factor at the polls, with voters from across the spectrum frustrated by high living costs and economic uncertainty. Campaigning in both states took place against a backdrop of surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict and tens of thousands of additional job cuts in German industry. Years of economic stagnation have prompted some voters to look outside the political centre.

In Berlin, the Left Party struck a chord with its focus on the city's housing shortage, pledging to build affordable new homes, forcibly reduce rents on properties that are 20 per cent or more above the local average, and curb holiday rentals. The AfD won support with a proposal to revive the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia, which terminates in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The party says reviving the pipeline with Russian gas would lower energy costs.

Lars Klingbeil, the SPD co-leader and vice-chancellor, said the government needs to take stock and ask why voters voiced such uncertainty about policymaking in Berlin, where Mr Merz’s coalition has struggled to sell its plan to overhaul the pension system and take on more debt to boost spending on defence and infrastructure.

“I take this very seriously,” Mr Klingbeil said. “I also believe that we need to look at results like these with humility and ask ourselves: 'What can we do differently? What can we do better?'”

The election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania was the latest demonstration of the AfD’s appeal, with the far right more than doubling its support and winning the state for the first time with calls to deport migrants, and oppose military support for Ukraine and its attacks on the political establishment.

The party’s national co-leader, Alice Weidel, said Mr Merz was the “wrong chancellor” and was doing damage to his party. “He’s dragging the CDU down with him,” Ms Weidel told ARD. “The CDU must ask itself – especially now – whether it wants to continue with this chancellor and with these left-wing policies. Because it won’t be able to carry on like this.”

Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based DIW research institute, said of Mr Merz’s hopes of clinging to power: “It will now become even more difficult for the federal government to muster the courage and political support for a fundamental reform programme.” If the ruling coalition parties stick to their red lines, he said, “political paralysis will become entrenched, economic weakness will persist and the likelihood of an AfD election victory in 2029 will rise further”.

But the AfD faced stiff competition from the long-dominant Social Democrats, blunting to some extent the far-right’s upward trajectory. The SPD fell short of the AfD, but was still in a position to form a new coalition with other parties. In Saxony-Anhalt, in contrast, the far right won almost 44 per cent and aims to secure enough votes to install a state premier next month.

Manuela Schwesig, the popular premier of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, said she had the backing of a majority of voters in the Baltic coast state who opposed the far right. In Berlin, Mr Merz’s party, which has governed the German capital since 2023, trailed the Left party. The Left won 25.7 per cent support, while the CDU secured 18.8 per cent, an ARD projection showed. Polls had shown the CDU, which took power in the German capital in 2023 for the first time in more than two decades, trailing the Left, which has campaigned on an affordability platform. Its lead candidate, Elif Eralp, the daughter of political refugees, would become the first mayor of Turkish descent. But it was unclear which party would be able to form a government, with a potential coalition including the Greens and SPD.