Strait of Hormuz Vessel Traffic Plummets as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Commodity vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz dropped to less than half over the weekend compared to the previous week, driven by ongoing tensions involving Iran and the wider Middle East. According to preliminary data from Kpler, a total of 14 vessels transited the strait, down significantly from 36 during the previous weekend. Out of these, 11 vessels exited the strait while three entered, with seven of the exiting vessels utilizing the Iranian route. Some ships navigated the passage in the dark or disabled their transponders to avoid detection.

The decline follows warnings from Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Tehran's conditions are met. Meanwhile, the US Central Command reported that it has assisted over 2,000 commercial ships transiting through the strait, with Adm Brad Cooper noting on X that primary transit lanes remain clear of mines despite the rising crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz serves as a vital transit route for global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas, historically carrying about 20 per cent of the global crude oil supply before the war began on February 28. However, ongoing attacks by Iranian forces have heavily impacted traffic volumes.

Simultaneously, traffic through the Bab Al Mandeb strait also declined as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels escalated. Houthi forces recently took control of strategic locations along the western coast overlooking the Red Sea, including the port city of Mokha, Perim Island (also known as Mayyun), and Dhubab. These seizures have granted the group a strategic advantage to monitor vessels sailing through the passage connecting Asia and Europe.

Brent oil continues to trade above $100 per barrel as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia support prices. The Houthis previously announced a maritime embargo on Saudi ships, forcing the kingdom to divert crude cargo toward the Suez Canal and around Africa for exports to Asian markets. Analysts from BMI note that while Red Sea navigation remains relatively safe for non-Saudi vessels, broader regional confrontations involving Iran and its aligned militias continue to influence maritime security and oil prices.