Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets to Single Digits as US-Iran Deal Expires

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen into single figures, with only three vessels transiting on Sunday, down from five on Saturday and 12 on Friday, the latest Kpler data shows. The volume of ships in the strait has fallen 64 per cent from its peak a few days after the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. About 520 commercial vessels are stranded in the Arabian Gulf, according to estimates shared by Kpler, an energy analytics firm.

“If and when unrestricted traffic resumes, we estimate it would take at least six to eight weeks to clear the backlog and increase flows,” said Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler. She added that the pace of ship movements would depend on the speed of demining work as well as operators' willingness to resume transits should security conditions improve.

The near-standstill in the world’s most critical waterway for energy comes as the 60-day window set by the interim US-Iran agreement, signed in Islamabad on June 17, expired on Sunday with neither side willing to extend it. US President Donald Trump had promised the deal would reopen the strait, but has since described the American blockade of Iranian ports as a “wall of steel”. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has insisted the waterway is Tehran’s to control. Mr Trump on Monday also threatened to bomb Oman, which shares Hormuz with Iran, if “it gets in the way”. He accused Oman of interfering in continuing discussions with Iran to re-open the strait, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas normally passes.

Total vessel crossings peaked at 275 in the week of June 24, days after the deal was signed. Crossings fell by 64 per cent to 98 by the first week of August and dropped further still to single digit daily crossings by mid-August. Iran's oil exports through the strait have fared the worse. Volumes briefly rose to 1.545 million barrels per day in the week of June 29, in what looked like the start of the reopening Mr Trump had promised. But volumes cratered by mid-July as the agreement unravelled amid disputes over control of the strait. Iranian volumes fell as much as 94 per cent to under 100,000 bpd, under a US-imposed blockade even as the interim deal was nominally in force.

Other Gulf producers that depend on Hormuz for exports, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain, have fared far better. Their combined crude exports through Hormuz stood at 2.948 million bpd in the week beginning August 3, down about 6 per cent from 3.14 million bpd in the week of June 15, the last data point before the MoU was signed on June 17, according to Kpler. Flows from the seven exporters had climbed to about 6.7 million bpd in late June before easing back towards pre-deal levels by late July and early August, in contrast with the sharp decline in Iranian exports. Much of that reflects crude still moving on smaller shuttle tankers to transfer points outside the strait.

More than half of all crossings tracked since the war began on February 28 were “dark”, with no reliable tracking signal, and a further 29 per cent used Iranian-controlled routes, Kpler data show. All three vessels that transited the strait on Sunday entered the Gulf, including an India-flagged very large crude carrier that had sailed from Sikka. It used the Iranian route to enter the waterway. The other two went dark, leaving their routes unknown.

“Going dark is a risk-mitigation gamble rather than a guarantee of protection,” Ms Subasic said. “Switching off AIS can reduce a vessel's visibility through conventional AIS tracking and potentially make targeting more targeting more difficult if an attacker is relying on that information.” AIS broadcasts a vessel’s identity, current position and speed as well as its planned destination.

A new arrangement between Iran and Oman to establish shipping routes through the strait is under discussion and could offer a way forward. However, it risks repeating the failure of the June deal. Tehran still insists on control over passage and has sought transit fees, demands rejected by Washington and Gulf states.