Renewed Violence and Shifting Alliances Threaten Ethiopia as Tigray Conflict Erupts Once Again

Nearly four years after a peace deal brought a brutal halt to one of the 21st century's deadliest conflicts, war has returned to Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, featuring drastically altered battle lines. Tigrayan rebels are once again engaged in combat with the federal government, while factions that were previously adversaries are now fighting side by side. Recently, Tigrayan forces seized three federal government-controlled airports, while active fighting also spread into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar. These hostilities have thoroughly shattered the 2022 peace agreement, which had successfully ended a war estimated to have claimed approximately 600,000 lives.

Relations between the federal government and Tigray's leaders had been deteriorating for months, though the exact catalyst for the latest fighting remains disputed as both sides offer conflicting accounts. Tigray’s regional government claimed that federal forces initiated the attack and stated it ordered a response to what it termed a 'defensive war.' Conversely, Getachew Reda, an adviser to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, asserted that the TPLF launched an 'all-out offensive' against government positions in Afar and Amhara while seizing the three Tigrayan airports, accusing the group of taking 'irresponsibility to new heights.'

This renewed violence follows nearly two months of smaller-scale clashes. According to the nongovernmental organization Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), fighting between Tigrayan and federal forces commenced near Ethiopia's border with Sudan on August 1, with both sides accusing each other of initiating the skirmishes. ACLED noted that subsequent federal drone strikes and Tigrayan troop deployments—including the movement of tanks and artillery south—escalated the situation. Consequently, the national carrier Ethiopian Airlines suspended all flights to Tigray following the airport seizures.

The roots of the current crisis trace back to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which was once Ethiopia’s dominant political force, governing the coalition for nearly three decades despite representing a small share of the population. That dynamic shifted when Abiy Ahmed assumed office as prime minister in 2018 following widespread anti-government protests. Although Abiy introduced significant political reforms and established peace with neighboring Eritrea—earning him the Nobel Peace Prize a year later—relations with the TPLF steadily deteriorated. Abiy replaced the previous ruling coalition with his Prosperity Party in 2019, a move the TPLF refused to join. Following the postponement of national elections due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Tigray proceeded with its own regional vote in defiance of Addis Ababa. In November 2020, Tigrayan forces attacked federal military bases in the region, prompting Abiy to deploy troops, with Eritrean forces and fighters from Amhara subsequently joining the federal army. By the time the conflict concluded two years later, millions were displaced, parts of Tigray faced famine, and both sides confronted accusations of severe human rights abuses.

Hostilities eventually concluded when the federal government and the TPLF signed an African Union-brokered agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, on November 2, 2022. The accord mandated the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, the restoration of federal authority, the resumption of humanitarian aid and basic services, and the establishment of an interim administration. However, major disputes persisted over contested territories claimed by both Tigray and Amhara, as well as the repatriation of displaced persons. Furthermore, Eritrea—whose soldiers fought alongside federal forces—was not a party to the agreement.

'The agreement didn’t collapse overnight — it was systematically hollowed out over three years,' Surafel Getahun, an Ethiopian geopolitics researcher, explained. Getahun noted that both sides bore responsibility, accusing the federal government of failing to fulfill key provisions such as the return of displaced people, and faulting the TPLF for breaching the accord by retaking control of the regional administration and rebuilding its military forces. Internal power struggles further fractured the TPLF, creating rival factions around TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and Reda, who headed the Tigray interim administration. After Reda was expelled from the party by Gebremichael’s faction and Abiy appointed a new interim leader in April 2025, Gebremichael’s faction regained control of Tigray’s government a month later, restoring the pre-war regional legislature and installing Gebremichael as regional president.

In a major geopolitical shift, the TPLF joined six other armed groups on Sunday to form a new alliance aimed at removing Abiy’s government and establishing a transitional administration. This coalition includes former enemies who fought on opposing sides during the previous war. TPLF spokesman Michael Asgedom stated that the groups would cooperate politically and militarily, dismissing the Pretoria agreement as 'no longer valid.' The alliance features the Amhara Fano National Movement—which fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF before turning against it in 2023—and the Oromo Liberation Army, which has long battled Abiy’s government in Oromia. Reports indicated that Tigrayan forces were actively fighting alongside the Fano group in Amhara and a local armed group in Afar.

Despite this formation, Getahun questioned the longevity of the alliance, highlighting ongoing divisions between the TPLF and Fano over contested territories like Western Tigray, alongside differing political and military goals. 'This is a temporary marriage of convenience against a mutual enemy rather than a lasting political agreement,' he observed. Meanwhile, Abiy’s spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, stated that the allied groups had been cooperating with financial backing from Eritrea, a claim the Eritrean government has repeatedly denied despite worsening relations with Ethiopia following their previous wartime alliance.

The African Union (AU) denounced the airport seizures as inconsistent with the Pretoria accord, urging both parties to de-escalate and requesting assistance from former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who helped mediate the 2022 agreement. As Ethiopia continues to manage active armed conflicts in Amhara and Oromia—leaving its federal military heavily stretched—analysts warn that the renewed conflict risks becoming even more devastating than the 2020–2022 war, making immediate de-escalation and dialogue the only viable paths forward.