German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Faces Record Low Approval Ratings Amid Severe Election Setbacks

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, is facing mounting unpopularity following a series of disastrous election results, though analysts note he currently lacks a clear successor. Minutes after exit polls flashed across German screens, Merz declared in a televised statement at the party’s headquarters in Stuttgart that he was staying in his position. Describing the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20 as a disaster, he emphasized his commitment to leading the party and the country with steadfastness and patience.

However, pressure on Merz has intensified significantly. A survey published on Thursday by Germany’s public broadcaster ARD revealed that only one in 10 respondents were satisfied with his work, marking the lowest approval rating for any chancellor since the survey began in 1997. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, his party crashed out of the state parliament after failing to clear the 5 percent threshold needed to secure seats, an unprecedented defeat since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) triumphed with over a third of the vote. Concurrently, in Berlin’s state elections, the CDU suffered another setback by placing second behind The Left party, which secured 25.7 percent of the vote and now aims to form a capital government. Just two weeks prior, the CDU faced a severe blow in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD claimed more than 40 percent of the vote compared to the CDU's 17 percent.

While Merz could face an internal party revolt, removing him as chancellor under Germany’s Constitution remains difficult, as the Bundestag can only replace a chancellor by simultaneously electing a successor with an absolute majority. Wolfgang Schroeder, a political science professor at the University of Kassel, told Al Jazeera that the CDU is trapped in a situation where it cannot easily move forward with Merz, yet lacks an attractive replacement to proceed without him. Merz, a former chairman of the BlackRock investment company’s German supervisory board, had long harboured ambitions for the chancellorship before being sidelined by then-Chancellor and -CDU leader Angela Merkel in the early 2000s, eventually staging a comeback to take office in May 2025.

During his tenure, Merz has drawn criticism for remarks regarding the country’s cityscape, known as "Stadtbild," which were widely interpreted as commentary on refugees and migrants. This debate has resurfaced among prominent CDU figures following the recent electoral losses. The rise of the AfD is only one element contributing to the decline of the long-dominant conservative party, which governs in coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) alongside its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union. The administration continues to struggle with the rising cost of living, deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure, and a housing crisis.

Nils Diederich, a professor emeritus of political science at the Free University of Berlin and a former SPD member in the Bundestag, suggested that the coalition itself is the primary problem, arguing that the Social Democrats have lost direction and are hindering necessary reforms. Schroeder warned that the ongoing crisis could potentially escalate into a fundamental crisis for both the CDU and the broader governing coalition. Meanwhile, the government faces a complex reform dilemma regarding a package of 34 measures introduced in July covering pensions, taxation, bureaucracy, and the labour market. Disagreements between the SPD and the CDU over health insurance costs, retirement provisions without pension reductions, and tax increases have heightened internal tensions, with the next major electoral test anticipated in North Rhine-Westphalia in April.