Flavio Bolsonaro Leads Brazil Presidential Race After Defying Polls in First Round

Right-wing Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has exceeded expectations in the first-round vote with a slight lead over the incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, triggering a run-off later this month. “Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia on Sunday as he saluted “the end of the era of [Lula’s] Workers’ Party”. The 45-year-old son of right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year jail sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, now faces an October 25 showdown with the 80-year-old Lula, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term.

In the run-up to Sunday’s first-round vote, a series of polls showed a close race between Lula and Bolsonaro, with the incumbent president poised to win by about 3 percentage points against his right-wing challenger. In a surprise result that defied opinion poll projections, Bolsonaro beat Lula with 47 percent of the vote, while Lula got 45.1 percent. Neither reached the 50 percent threshold needed to win in the first round.

Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected performance is likely to buoy his campaign and may bolster Brazil’s currency and stock market, which have risen on the prospects of the business-friendly challenger. Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in San Paulo, Brazil, said Lula was in a difficult position as he could not count on voters who backed one of the other 10 candidates to vote for him in the second round.

Several politicians from the Bolsonaro family have won congressional races taking place as part of the broader nationwide general elections. Michelle Bolsonaro, wife of former President Jair Bolsonaro and stepmother of Flavio, won a Senate seat in the Federal District, home to the capital, Brasilia. Ex-leader Bolsonaro’s second son Carlos Bolsonaro, 43, was the second most-voted senatorial candidate in the southern Santa Catarina state and won a seat in the Senate, while the younger son, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, was elected to the lower house of Congress.

Brazil’s presidential election carries significant regional and geopolitical implications. Reporting from Sao Paulo, Al Jazeera’s Lucia Newman said Lula has been “on a collision course” with United States President Donald Trump, who is a vocal and ardent supporter of the Bolsonaro camp. While Bolsonarism is strongly aligned with the US and Israel, Brazil also has a tight economic relationship with China, its largest trade partner.