Uncertainty Looms as UN Security Council Struggles to Agree on Successor to Secretary General Antonio Guterres

Less than three months before UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres's term expires, the Security Council has yet to decide on his successor, leaving the rules with little guidance on how to handle a potential deadlock. Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica led the fourth straw poll last month with 10 “encourage” votes, three “discourage” votes, and two “no opinions,” though she remains short of a clear consensus. A candidate needs at least nine votes in the 15-member Council and must avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members. The Security Council is expected to conduct a fifth secret straw poll on Wednesday morning, having not yet moved to a colour-coded ballot that would reveal which veto-wielding members opposed a candidate.

Ben Cohen, who focuses on international organisations at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, noted that Ms Grynspan is unlikely to be Washington’s initial choice. However, she could emerge as a compromise candidate if the five permanent members reject other leading contenders. This selection carries unique historical significance, as the UN has never been led by a woman in its 81-year history, and several female candidates are currently seeking the position.

Should the publicly named contenders fail to secure a veto-proof path forward, other names have been unofficially suggested, including Nickolay Mladenov, head of the Board of Peace, and UAE Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh, who has not publicly commented on the race. Diplomats have also raised the possibility that new candidates or a “dark horse” could enter the contest. Esther Brimmer, former US assistant secretary of state for international organisation affairs under President Barack Obama, stated that a new candidate could indeed emerge, keeping member states concerned about the final outcome.

Some diplomats indicate that the US might push for a candidate from the business world to address concerns regarding the UN’s finances and bloated bureaucracy. While Mr Cohen acknowledged this possibility—suggesting a capable businessperson skilled in balancing books—he questioned whether such a figure could win the approval of Russia and China, both holding veto power.

While the UN Charter states that the General Assembly appoints the Secretary General upon the recommendation of the Security Council, it provides no protocol for a failure to agree. Richard Gowan, the International Crisis Group's global issues and institutions programme director, believes Mr Guterres has no desire to extend his stay beyond his second five-year term, noting that Washington opposes an extension as well.

With no clear precedent for an empty chair on January 1, some member states are discussing plans for the General Assembly to install a new UN chief independently. However, experts warn this could lead to friction if veto-wielding powers refuse to recognize a leader lacking Council endorsement. Historical close calls, such as deadlocks in 1981 and 1996 resolved in mid-December, suggest that a last-minute compromise remains the most likely outcome, though experts acknowledge a potential crisis if the powers fail to agree.