Ethiopia and Eritrea Face Escalating Tensions as Troops Cross into Tigray

Eritrean troops have crossed into Ethiopia's Tigray region and were targeted by Ethiopian drones during their southern advance, according to a conflict monitor. This development marks a significant escalation that could trigger a direct war between the two neighboring countries.

Dr Jalale Getachew Birru, an East Africa analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (Acled), reported that Eritrean forces crossed the border at Zalambessa and moved toward the road connecting Adigrat and Idaga Hamus. He noted that "Ethiopian National Defence Forces drones targeted Eritrean troops at Guada as they travelled by vehicle towards Idaga Hamus." Residents in Adigrat, located approximately 25km south of the border, observed military vehicles transporting dozens of Eritrean soldiers on Wednesday morning.

The Ethiopian government demanded an immediate withdrawal, with Government Communication Minister Enatalem Melese stating, "All foreign military forces operating within our sovereign territory must withdraw immediately." Eritrea did not dispute the border crossing. Information Minister Yemane Meskel posted on X, accusing Ethiopia of constructing "a fallacious narrative of 'self defence' to rationalise and camouflage its war of aggression."

The incursion follows federal forces recapturing Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). According to Acled data, Tigray Defence Forces maintain a strong presence in Idaga Hamus and Adigrat, while numerous TPLF leaders remain in the rural Ahferom district of central Tigray. Dr Jalale suggested that Eritrea may be supporting the Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed groups including the TPLF, formed last month to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Eritrea's motives appear rooted in its dissatisfaction with the 2002 Pretoria agreement that ended the previous war in Tigray, as well as lingering grievances from the 1998-2000 border war. Analysts indicate Asmara seeks to establish a hostile buffer zone in Tigray to prevent Ethiopian forces from reaching the border and potentially engaging in Eritrean territory.

Diplomatic relations have deteriorated rapidly. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats over national security concerns, prompting Eritrea to sever ties. The United States has urged both nations to exercise maximum restraint, warning that the region cannot endure another military and humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, the situation has drawn regional attention regarding Egypt, which shares ties with Eritrea amid ongoing disputes with Ethiopia over the Nile and Red Sea security.