Escalating Tigray Conflict Raises Fears of Wider Regional Intervention

Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, has been retaken by Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters amid renewed fighting in the region. After nearly two weeks of fierce fighting, Ethiopian federal forces entered the capital as forces from an alliance of rebel groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), withdrew from the city. The fighting that erupted late last month has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and the fragile peace that followed the devastating Tigray war. However, Mekelle’s capture may mark the end of conventional warfare rather than the end of the conflict itself. Fighting has continued elsewhere in Tigray, while reports of Eritrean troops entering northern Tigrayan towns have added a potentially more dangerous regional dimension.

Ethiopian federal forces used air and ground forces to advance across Tigray. After suffering successive defeats around the towns of Alamata and Kobo, rebel forces withdrew into the surrounding countryside, pledging to continue fighting. “We will confront the enemy on our terms and where we choose,” said TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael. There are echoes of the war that began in 2020, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government declared victory after federal forces captured Mekelle, only for Tigrayan forces to regroup in the mountains and prolong the war for nearly a year and a half. Ethiopia is already facing insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, raising the prospect of federal forces being stretched across multiple fronts.

The battlefield reversals suffered by the rebels could have implications well beyond Tigray, raising concerns in Egypt and among other Ethiopian rivals, according to Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an African analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute. “Egypt views the Renaissance Dam, and any Ethiopian [army] move towards the Red Sea, as a strategic threat, so it has allied with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia against any Ethiopian unilateralism,” Ibrahim noted. Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea won its war of independence in 1991, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has increasingly made access to the Red Sea a strategic priority, raising concerns in Eritrea over ambitions regarding the port of Assab. Ethiopia currently relies heavily on Djibouti for maritime trade while pursuing alternatives through Kenya and Somaliland.

In recent months, Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia have found themselves sharing concerns over Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. On October 4, the leaders of the four countries met for a quadrilateral consultative summit in New Alamein, Egypt, discussing regional issues and pledging to strengthen political, economic, and trade cooperation. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated sharply since the Pretoria ceasefire, with Ethiopia closing its embassy in Eritrea and expelling Eritrean diplomats on October 1, leading Eritrea to sever diplomatic ties.

The Ethiopian army’s advance into Tigray has added another layer to the rivalry. The Associated Press news agency reported Eritrean troops entering Adigrat and Idaga Hamus after crossing into Ethiopia, though Eritrea has neither confirmed nor denied the troop movements. A prolonged conflict in Tigray could keep Ethiopian forces tied down, but a decisive victory could leave the federal government with greater freedom to turn its attention towards regional rivals. Meanwhile, Sudan’s war adds another dimension, with Egypt providing political, logistical, and technical support to Sudan’s army, and Ethiopia facing accusations of facilitating support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

While the shared interests of Ethiopia’s regional rivals do not necessarily translate into direct military intervention, the extent of any regional involvement may ultimately depend on whether the TPLF can keep federal forces tied down in Tigray and away from the Eritrean border. The question now is whether these regional calculations will remain largely diplomatic or spill over onto the battlefield.