Iran Offers to Mediate Yemen Conflict Amidst Escalating Regional Tensions and Saudi-Houthi Attacks

Following a series of deadly attacks on Saudi Arabia, Iran has extended an offer to facilitate talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi group. This diplomatic move has prompted questions about Tehran’s strategic calculations as regional conflicts intensify. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi engaged in discussions with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, on Sunday. This marks their first publicly acknowledged contact since the Iran-aligned Houthis escalated their attacks on the kingdom.

The diplomatic overture comes in the wake of weekend strikes on Riyadh’s international airport, which resulted in 14 fatalities and hundreds of injuries. Concurrently, Saudi-backed forces are intensifying their offensive against the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, within Yemen. These discussions also occur against the backdrop of the broader US-Israel war on Iran, suggesting Tehran may be seeking to avoid further entanglement in regional confrontations.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, commented to Al Jazeera, “Tehran is an ally of Ansar Allah and has influence with the movement, although it does not control its decisions.” She added, “By offering to facilitate talks with Riyadh, Iran is positioning itself as an indispensable party to a broader regional settlement.”

Discussions Between Riyadh and Tehran

According to the Saudi state news agency, the foreign ministers addressed the recent regional escalation and efforts to de-escalate tensions. Iran’s Foreign Ministry corroborated this development. Following the talks, Minister Araghchi cautioned against a military resolution to the conflict on Sunday, proposing Tehran’s assistance in mediating dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

“Insisting on a military approach and disregarding a political solution would only further complicate the situation,” Araghchi stated, as reported by Iran’s Foreign Ministry. On Monday, ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei reiterated Tehran’s readiness to mediate, expressing deep concern over developments in the Arabian Peninsula. “We absolutely do not want hostilities and war to continue between two Islamic countries,” Baghaei urged, advocating for dialogue.

Iran’s Position on the Yemen War

Iran has consistently advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the Yemen conflict, supporting political solutions over continued military action. Tehran backs the Houthis, who currently control Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and other territories. The Houthi group is part of the Iran-aligned “axis of resistance,” which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and various armed groups in Iraq. Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

Baghaei suggested on Monday that the conflict benefits Israeli interests, framing a negotiated settlement as more advantageous than prolonged fighting. He also noted that the conflict served Israeli interests.

Latest Developments in Yemen Fighting

Fighting has intensified in Yemen following the internationally recognized government’s launch of Operation Dawn of Yemen on October 4, aimed at reclaiming recent Houthi territorial gains, including Sanaa. Government forces, supported by Riyadh, report advances near the crucial Bab al-Mandeb strait, a vital international shipping route. However, verifying competing battlefield claims remains challenging.

In response, the Houthis have conducted missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi airports, energy infrastructure, and other sites. Two strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on Saturday and Sunday resulted in 14 deaths and over 300 injuries, with casualties including foreign nationals from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Palestine. The escalating violence has disrupted commercial flights, businesses, and schools in Riyadh, highlighting the growing economic and civilian repercussions of the conflict.

UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg warned on Friday that Yemen had reverted to “full-scale war,” with civilians bearing the brunt of the attacks.

Iran’s Motivation for Facilitating Talks

Iran’s offer to mediate between Riyadh and the Houthis may serve to bolster Tehran’s diplomatic standing and secure a broader regional agreement extending beyond Yemen. Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security analyst at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, “I think Iran is trying to turn Yemen from a military liability into a diplomatic asset.” He noted that Tehran recognizes Saudi Arabia’s difficulties in reversing Houthi territorial gains, particularly around Taiz and Bab al-Mandeb, despite an intensified military campaign.

“Araghchi’s offer is an attempt to position Iran as part of the solution to a crisis in which it has also helped sustain the problem,” Krieg observed. Analyst Mortazavi suggested Iran’s diplomatic outreach is part of a larger strategy to connect the region’s unfolding conflicts. “The larger political objective is an informal non-aggression arrangement between Iran and its allies on one side and the United States and its regional partners on the other,” she stated. Such an agreement, she argued, would necessitate an end to hostilities across multiple fronts, including Yemen and Lebanon, rather than a resolution solely focused on the US-Iran conflict.

Furthermore, Krieg pointed to a significant “Saudi dimension” in the discussions. “Riyadh is increasingly uncomfortable with its dependence on Washington, frustrated by the limited American willingness to intervene in Yemen and reluctant to become dependent on the UAE again,” he explained. “Iran sees an opportunity to demonstrate that engagement with Tehran can deliver something Saudi Arabia’s traditional security partnerships have struggled to provide.”

Analysts also highlighted economic considerations. Iran faces considerable pressure from the US blockade, while Gulf countries are gradually restoring their energy exports to pre-war levels despite Iranian disruptions. “Offering Riyadh a way out of Yemen potentially gives Iran leverage well beyond the Yemeni theatre, particularly in negotiations over Hormuz, sanctions relief and the wider regional security architecture,” Krieg noted.

However, Krieg cautioned against overestimating Iran’s sway over the Houthis, who possess their own political aspirations and demands. “Ansar Allah is not simply an Iranian proxy awaiting instructions,” Krieg stated. “Its leadership has its own political ambitions, increasingly sees itself as a regional military actor and believes its recent territorial gains have strengthened its negotiating position. Iran can facilitate talks and potentially influence the intensity of escalation, but it cannot simply order the Houthis to surrender their gains around Mocha or Bab al-Mandeb.”

Mortazavi concluded, “Ultimately, Tehran’s message is that regional security cannot be divided. Saudi Arabia cannot obtain security from attacks, while Iran and its allies remain under military and economic pressure.”