Trump's Ambivalence on Netanyahu's Election Looms Amid Shifting Political Tides

Since assuming office in 2017, US President Donald Trump has consistently supported a right-wing Israeli agenda, significantly benefiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political standing. Netanyahu, in turn, has leveraged this relationship, presenting himself as the primary custodian of Israel's crucial ties with the US, largely weathering any public disagreements or private frustrations expressed by Trump that failed to translate into policy shifts. However, despite their extensive history, Trump has adopted a notably indifferent stance towards the upcoming October 27 Israeli election. This election poses a significant challenge to Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing coalition, facing a strong opposition bloc led by Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot. This public detachment from Trump is likely influenced by evolving political dynamics in both the United States and Israel, as well as the changing nature of the Trump-Netanyahu relationship, according to Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine/Israel programme at the Arab Center Washington DC. "He seems to be keeping greater distance from it than you would think," Munayyer told Al Jazeera, "given Trump’s past endorsements of right-wing allies, given the history of the Trump-Netanyahu relationship, and just how close Trump and Netanyahu have been". In a recent interview with Time magazine, the US president avoided directly endorsing Netanyahu on three occasions, though he did defend the Israeli prime minister's leadership prior to the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Regarding Eisenkot, Trump commented, "I don’t hear bad things."

Trump's actions concerning Israel, particularly his relationship with Netanyahu, have often been more impactful than his words. During his first term (2017-2021), Trump relocated the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and facilitated normalization agreements with Arab nations that bypassed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In his second term, which began in January 2025, he continued to supply advanced US weaponry to Israel amidst the conflict in Gaza, intensified pressure on the International Criminal Court (ICC), and initiated a global economic crisis through conflict with Iran. Trump has also advocated for Netanyahu's pardon in his ongoing corruption trial and has hosted the Israeli leader at the White House at least seven times since returning to office, more than any other world leader. Despite indications of friction over Netanyahu's obstruction of US efforts to achieve a lasting peace in Gaza and end the conflict with Iran, these issues have not resulted in concrete policy changes. Michael Omer-Man, Israel-Palestine director at the DAWN think tank, suggested, "It’s a relationship they’ve carefully choreographed for public consumption, and the few juicy bits that we’ve learned have been almost entirely of Trump’s choosing." He did not dismiss the possibility of a significant US intervention to support Netanyahu in the final stages of the election. "I don’t think that Trump’s abandoned Netanyahu," Omer-Man stated to Al Jazeera, "But he’s also a realist, and he’s seen a lot of his preferred candidates in various countries lose elections as well as win them." Omer-Man believes the stakes might not be exceptionally high for Trump. Eisenkot has proposed a more moderate approach than Netanyahu, particularly concerning the reduction of settler violence in the occupied West Bank. However, these proposed changes are primarily aimed at improving Israel's international standing with European governments and the global community, with minimal impact on its already favorable relations with the Trump administration. "I don’t think we would see a whole lot of change vis-a-vis the US, because there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of friction in the relationship," he explained. "An Eisenkot government might stop taking over every single hilltop in the West Bank; they might allow more [aid] into Gaza, but they’re not going to reverse any of the steps that have already been taken."

'Enemies versus friends' Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst on Israel at the International Crisis Group, highlighted the changing context surrounding the Trump-Netanyahu relationship. Trump's current reticence may stem partly from divisions within his administration regarding Netanyahu's government, mirroring broader divisions within the Republican Party as US midterm elections approach. "It’s probably a combination of the Iran war and the split in the Trump administration with people like [Vice President JD] Vance, who have come out very much against Netanyahu’s role in pushing for the US to strike Iran," Zonszein noted. Public opinion polls consistently indicate strong support for Israel among Republicans, although this has seen a slight decline in recent years, with confidence in Netanyahu also decreasing within the party. Concurrently, Trump's perceived influence in Israel has shifted, with Netanyahu's critics leveraging the US role in constraining Israeli operations in Lebanon, which had threatened to jeopardize a June memorandum of understanding that temporarily halted the US-Israel conflict with Iran. An Israeli Democracy Institute poll from June revealed that only 44 percent of Jewish Israelis considered Israel's security a top priority for Trump, a decrease from 61 percent in March, shortly after the US and Israel initiated the conflict with Iran. Netanyahu himself has notably refrained from using billboards highlighting his close ties with Trump in this election cycle, a departure from previous campaigns. Instead, he has featured images of individuals he identifies as Israel's primary regional and international adversaries, including Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Zonszein explained that Netanyahu is emphasizing "his enemies versus his friends."