Trump's Military Chessboard: Navigating the US-Iran Stalemate Post-Midterms

United States President Donald Trump has indicated on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he will refrain from attacking Iran prior to the November 3 midterm elections. However, he also stated at a Republican convention in September that the conflict "is going to end immediately after the elections." Concurrently, the US military has been reinforcing its presence in the region in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated to their highest point since the war commenced, with an Iranian official informing Reuters that Tehran is employing new offensive tactics against vessels perceived to be violating its restrictions. Given that control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical element in the US-Iran conflict, the article explores President Trump's remaining military options and their potential costs, drawing on insights from Al Jazeera's discussions with military analysts.

Current State of the US-Iran War: A Deadlock

The conflict began on February 28 with an attack by the US and Israel on Iran, prompting retaliatory actions from Iran against US military assets and infrastructure in Gulf countries and Jordan. Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for approximately 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies before the war, sent global energy markets into turmoil. The price of Crude Oil, the global benchmark, surged from around $72 a barrel before the war to a peak of nearly $120 a barrel earlier this year, trading at about $104 on Thursday. A ceasefire agreement in June faltered over the control of the strait, leading Washington to maintain a naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports while Iran continued its attacks on passing ships. Despite ongoing indirect negotiations via Pakistan and Qatar, which include the exchange of various proposals, President Trump rejected Iran’s latest offer to reopen the strait last month.

Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University and a former senior Royal Air Force officer, noted that while the US possesses "enormous military capability that Iran can’t match," it has not yielded the desired outcomes. The US military presence in the Middle East includes at least three aircraft carrier strike groups in or en route to the Gulf, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group, comprising approximately 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, heading to join existing forces. Additionally, the US maintains substantial military assets and around 50,000 soldiers stationed at various bases across Middle Eastern countries.

President Trump's Military Options

1. Maintain Pressure on Iran: The existing US naval blockade on Iranian ports and naval escorts for commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz represent the status quo, which can be continued. Patrick Bury, a senior associate professor at the University of Bath and former NATO research analyst, considers this the most probable course of action. Prior to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz typically saw about 125 large commercial vessels daily, transporting an average of 17.1 million barrels of oil. This traffic significantly decreased with the strait's closure in March. In recent weeks, with US Navy escorts, Gulf oil flows through Hormuz (excluding Iran's) had recovered to over 81 percent of pre-war levels by September, according to maritime tracking firm Kpler. However, this trend reversed due to Iran's increased attacks on ships in the strait. On October 11, only 2.9 million barrels of oil passed through the waterway, the lowest figure for the month. Washington is focused on maintaining patrols and surveillance on the southwestern side of the strait to provide protection for vessels, Bury explained. Drones are increasingly utilized for intelligence gathering and attacks due to their cost-effectiveness compared to long aircraft sorties. Bury commented, "I mean, it’s been somewhat effective," adding that high oil prices and crew bonuses incentivize risk-taking. However, Iran has adapted its tactics, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) recording 15 attacks on ships between October 6 and 14. Bury highlighted Iran's preparedness and the "asymmetry of costs," noting that Iran's geography provides it with an "easier starting point."