Saudi Arabia's Strategic Tightrope: Options to Counter Houthi Threats Amidst Regional Tensions

Saudi Arabia is grappling with a persistent challenge in Yemen: possessing the military might to confront the Iran-backed Houthis effectively, yet lacking a guarantee that such actions will prevent future threats to the kingdom. The recent escalation of missile and drone attacks by the Houthis, targeting Saudi airports and critical energy infrastructure like Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, has intensified this dilemma. Analysts suggest that Riyadh's options for restoring deterrence are limited, encompassing intensified airstrikes, enhanced support for Yemeni government forces, strengthened air defenses, and renewed diplomatic engagement.

Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Centre, emphasized the need for Saudi Arabia to exert military pressure within Yemen to deter further attacks, prioritizing the degradation of Houthi missile capabilities to limit cross-border assaults. Tensions flared in July following an airstrike on Sanaa International Airport, which the Houthis attributed to Saudi Arabia, though Yemen’s internationally recognized government claimed responsibility, stating the strike targeted the runway to prevent an unauthorized Iranian aircraft landing. This incident disrupted a fragile period of calm established by a 2022 truce, leading to subsequent Houthi missile launches and intensified fighting.

Sager noted Saudi Arabia's commitment to de-escalation and a ceasefire but suggested that renewed military pressure might be necessary to secure credible commitments from the Houthis before agreeing to another truce. The Houthis have been in conflict with the Yemeni government since seizing Sanaa in 2014, prompting Saudi Arabia's intervention in 2015 with a regional coalition.

Beyond air power, Saudi Arabia boasts one of the world's largest military budgets and a sophisticated arsenal. However, Aziz Algashian, a senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, argued that defeating the Houthis requires more than aerial capabilities, necessitating effective ground forces to alter the power balance in Houthi-controlled territories and maritime forces to interdict supply lines. He pointed out that while Yemeni forces opposing the Houthis have improved, they still face challenges of competence and fragmentation, contributing to the Houthis' resilience.

The Houthis have evolved from a poorly equipped militia into a formidable fighting force, possessing long-range missiles and drones. Since the 2023 Gaza conflict, they have launched numerous projectiles towards Israel, with some reaching their targets. The conflict is seen as a spillover of the broader Iran-US/Israel tensions, with ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve regional issues and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Some observers believe a broader US-Iran agreement could be the most effective path to halting Houthi attacks, with the US potentially securing Iranian commitments to restrain the Houthis. US support for Saudi Arabia includes arms sales, military advisors, and intelligence sharing, though direct combat operations have been avoided. While President Donald Trump has considered strikes against the Houthis, the administration has stated no new military operations are planned, maintaining dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government.

Algashian suggested that while American firepower might offer initial deterrence, the Houthis may be prepared to withstand such pressure, relying on their past resilience. He also highlighted the importance of Saudi Arabia's alliances and international cooperation. Sager underscored the need for Saudi Arabia to mobilize the international community, strengthen its defensive capabilities, and secure regional and international partnerships to protect its territory and deter future attacks.