Brazil's Amazon Deforestation Plummets to Historic Low, Boosting President Lula's Environmental Credentials

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has reached its lowest point since record-keeping began in 1988, according to official figures released by Brazil’s space research agency, Inpe. This significant reduction provides a welcome boost to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva just days before a presidential run-off election.

Inpe reported on Friday that 3,335 square kilometers (1,288 square miles) of forest were cleared in the 12 months leading up to July. This represents a substantial decrease of approximately 42 percent compared to the previous year. The previous record low was recorded in 2011-2012, with 4,571 sq km (1,765 sq miles), while annual losses peaked at nearly 30,000 sq km (almost 11,600 sq miles) in the mid-1990s, according to the Prodes satellite program, which measures deforestation from August to July to account for lower cloud cover.

Environment Minister Joao Paulo Capobianco described the drop as “absolutely stratospheric” and “like a dream” during a news conference in Brasilia. Marcio Astrini of the climate advocacy group Observatorio do Clima hailed the figures as “a historic achievement,” emphasizing that “with political will, it is possible to curb deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions.”

President Lula expressed his commitment on X, stating, “Our goal is to achieve zero illegal deforestation by 2030.” He assumed office in 2023 with a pledge to end illegal deforestation by 2030, a stark contrast to the soaring deforestation rates during his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro’s term, which saw an average of about 11,600 sq km (approximately 4,480 sq miles) lost annually between 2019 and 2022, an increase of nearly 60 percent over the preceding four years.

Deforestation has seen a consistent decline since 2022, with a total reduction of 71.2 percent over the past four years. The AFP news agency attributes this downward trend to enhanced monitoring efforts and stricter penalties for illegal logging.

Lula is set to face Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, in the election run-off scheduled for October 25. Polls indicate a close contest between the two candidates. Flavio Bolsonaro’s manifesto outlines plans to strengthen environmental oversight in the Amazon, redirect enforcement focus towards organized crime instead of extractive workers and small farmers, and aims to end “illegal deforestation” by 2029. He has also publicly supported his father, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for coup plotting, and has criticized what he terms a “radical environmental agenda.”

In addition to the Amazon, deforestation in the Cerrado savanna, located south of the Amazon, also decreased by approximately 24 percent, reaching 5,517 sq km (2,130 sq miles), the lowest figure since records began in 2001.