Netanyahu's New Security Doctrine: A Strategic Masterstroke or Election Gambit?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has introduced an updated national security doctrine, accompanied by a map illustrating regional rivalries. This new approach emphasizes preemptive military action, the establishment of buffer zones, and the cultivation of new regional partnerships. The doctrine, developed with the Israeli National Security Council and released by the Prime Minister’s Office on Sunday, comes just nine days before Israel's parliamentary elections, which could significantly impact Netanyahu's tenure.

The policy formally advocates for preventing perceived threats through military intervention rather than containment, a strategy already evident in Israel's recent military operations and attacks on neighboring territories. The timing of the map's release is particularly significant given Netanyahu's ongoing political challenges, including criticism of his leadership, a corruption trial, his response to the October 7, 2023, attacks, and the subsequent wars.

As the October 27 election approaches, Netanyahu is striving to reinforce his image as Israel's paramount security leader, aiming to secure votes from Israelis who may disagree with his other policies but still consider him the most capable defender of the nation. Netanyahu, who received an endorsement from US President Donald Trump on Sunday, cautioned that a future US administration could be less supportive of Israel. He stated, "In two years, a president… who is extremely hostile to Israel could come to power [in the United States]." Consequently, he argued for Israel to "expand our network of alliances and develop capabilities that make us a valuable asset" to other nations, ensuring its security should US policy shift.

Analysts suggest these remarks indicate Netanyahu's intention to present his leadership as indispensable for managing both regional military threats and Israel's diplomatic isolation, while also appeasing a concerned electorate. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, explained that the strategic presentation focuses on competing regional blocs and buffer zones. He noted that this framework "incubates and nurtures existential fears, which would lead Israeli voters to feel the need for a decisive leader." Hage Ali believes Netanyahu benefits from public fear of regional threats by positioning himself as a familiar and capable leader, effectively becoming "the devil you know" for voters hesitant about political change during a critical period.

Netanyahu's political rivals have contested this narrative. Gadi Eisenkot, a key challenger, dismissed the doctrine as "two hollow pages, full of slogans that have nothing to do with a security concept." Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid similarly described the document as "superficial."

The map displayed by Netanyahu, originally published in May by the German political foundation Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, delineates the Middle East and parts of Africa into competing blocs, highlighting the region's intricate alliances and rivalries. These include states, unrecognized entities, and non-state actors. The map identifies an Israel-United Arab Emirates alignment, termed the "Hexagon Alliance," and a separate grouping of Egypt, Turkiye, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia—the latter three having signed the Mecca mutual defence pact in August—labeled the "Sunni Diamond Alliance." Iran and its regional allies are depicted as a distinct axis.

This map visually supports the security doctrine by illustrating Israel's perceived threats, the alliances it seeks to forge, and the necessity of "buffer zones" through territorial occupation in other countries. Israel's current occupation of Gaza and southern Lebanon serves as an example of the potential ramifications of expanding this buffer zone strategy. Hage Ali warned that a continued focus on expanding military control could result in "more conflict and more ethnic cleansing" under the guise of security buffers.

A notable feature of Netanyahu's map is its explicit recognition of non-state actors as cooperative entities. It highlights territories controlled by the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan and Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army as aligned with Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Hage Ali explained that Israel views these groups as pragmatic partners within a broader strategic framework. However, publicly associating these groups with Israel could undermine their domestic standing in the Arab world. Hage Ali added that this reflects Netanyahu's immediate priorities, where "what Israelis think matters more than the reputation of your allies and the viability of these alliances."

The portrayal of the Middle East as a region divided into competing alliances also poses risks to Netanyahu's broader diplomatic objectives. Earlier this year, Netanyahu proposed a "hexagon of alliances" involving Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus, and unspecified Arab, African, and Asian partners, aimed against what he termed "radical" regional alliances. This proposed grouping has not materialized as a formal alliance, and observers have characterized it as a branding effort rather than a binding military pact, noting that countries like India prioritize non-alignment and trade over ideologically rigid blocs.

For Tehran and its regional allies, the map provides significant propaganda material. Hage Ali emphasized that the visual representation "will certainly help their propaganda machine," offering Hezbollah and other Iranian allies evidence to support their narrative of Israeli expansionism and regional dominance.