Iran Shifts to Offensive Doctrine Amid Escalating Tensions and US Alert

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced a significant shift in its defence strategy, moving from a defensive posture to an "offensive" doctrine. This change, revealed on Wednesday, suggests that renewed attacks by the United States could prompt Tehran to invade neighboring countries and target US military bases. The warning comes amidst heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding diplomatic efforts to resolve the nearly eight-month war.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi stated, "Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive." This declaration follows escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and follows a period of diplomatic stalemate. Washington has responded by ordering some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthis, while US President Donald Trump has indicated a decision regarding the conflict is imminent.

Media reports suggest that the US and Israel are contemplating potential attacks on Iran in the coming weeks. With negotiations appearing stalled and both sides exchanging threats, the region faces the possibility of further military escalation. The IRGC's new "offensive and asymmetrical" defence doctrine signals that Tehran will no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes.

Mohebi also highlighted a 1.5-fold increase in Iran's missile stockpile since the June 2025 war between Iran and Israel, noting significant improvements in missile quality, range, destructive power, and accuracy. He also mentioned Iran's preparation to unveil a new weapon, dubbed the 'father of all bombs'.

Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The IRGC's navy reported striking and setting fire to four vessels accused of illegal oil transfers in the northern Gulf, with three other vessels hitting mines west of the strait. Prior to the war, the Strait of Hormuz was responsible for one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supplies. Although shipments have not fully recovered, oil exports from the region have returned to pre-war levels due to alternative shipping routes. However, recent attacks in the waterway and the conflict in Yemen have caused oil prices to surge, with Brent crude climbing above $110 a barrel amid fears of further supply disruptions.

Analysts suggest Iran's doctrinal shift is a strategic move to make future US-Israeli attacks more costly. Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, explained that Tehran is learning from past conflicts where its retaliatory strategy failed to deter attacks. "Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: Any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors," she told Al Jazeera. Mortazavi added that Iran, unable to match conventional US military power, is increasingly relying on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones, and its influence over the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy aims to impose military, economic, and political costs on Washington, potentially impacting the upcoming US midterm elections on November 3.

"The long-term objective is to establish deterrence so that future American administrations think twice before daring to attack Iran again," Mortazavi stated. Political analyst Rami Khouri noted that the doctrine also aims to ensure that the consequences of any attacks extend to the US, Israel, and regional allies. "That’s one part of the strategy, that the suffering and the damage have to be equal and reciprocal," Khouri told Al Jazeera. He also suggested that Iran is challenging Western domination in the region and that the economic consequences of conflict could extend globally, affecting energy supplies, transportation, and insurance costs.

US President Trump has sent mixed signals regarding future actions, stating that negotiations with Tehran have ceased and that developments are imminent. "We are going to have something one way or the other that’ll happen fairly soon," he told reporters, while also suggesting the war could end soon but with a lasting outcome. Trump had previously pledged not to attack Iran before the November 3 elections.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described reaching a peace agreement as extremely difficult and stressed Iran's need to cease targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio reiterated Washington's rejection of any agreement that allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Iran, however, maintains its right to enrichment under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has proposed a seven-day plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions, and unfreezing assets.

The US Department of State has ordered non-emergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia following recent Houthi attacks. The US embassy in Riyadh has warned of further attacks, and American officials indicated that family members might be withdrawn from other Gulf missions. State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott clarified that departure orders were specific to Saudi Arabia.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirmed his commitment to toppling Iran’s government, viewing it as crucial to preventing the rebuilding of its nuclear program and the "axis of resistance," further increasing the likelihood of escalation. Netanyahu made these remarks during a critical election battle.

Analysts warn that renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible, with both sides preparing for confrontation. "Another round of war seems to be approaching," Mortazavi said, noting that escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz heighten the risk of wider conflict. She suggested that the upcoming elections in the US and Israel could influence the timing of military action, but the current trajectory points towards escalation. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated, "Everyone must know that any action against Iran comes at a cost." Khouri echoed concerns about an approaching confrontation, though he suggested US threats might be part of a negotiating strategy. He anticipates severe attacks on critical infrastructure in Iran, but cautioned that Iran's ability to withstand such assaults while inflicting comparable damage remains uncertain.