Trump's White Evangelical Support Dips Ahead of Crucial Midterm Elections

Support for former United States President Donald Trump among white evangelical Protestant voters, a key Republican demographic, has seen a decline since he retook office in January 2025. A recent poll by Reuters and Ipsos indicates that Trump's backing within this group has fallen to 63 percent, a decrease from 77 percent at the time of his second inauguration. This shift coincides with a drop in Trump's overall approval rating to an all-time low of 31 percent.

The potential significance of this decline is amplified as the midterm elections approach on November 3, where the Republican party aims to retain its congressional majorities. Current projections suggest Democrats are favored to gain control of the US House of Representatives, with increasing possibilities of flipping the Senate, driven by widespread discontent over economic affordability and the US-Israeli conflict in Iran.

Despite these trends, Republicans are reportedly relying on their core base to offset a potential Democratic surge. During a recent campaign stop in South Carolina, a state with a significant white evangelical population, Trump addressed social issues important to conservative Christians, including policies concerning transgender individuals. He specifically targeted Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, using an anti-transgender slur and questioning her candidacy in the state.

White evangelicals have historically been a vital component of Trump's political coalition, accounting for nearly a third of his support in 2024, according to analyses by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) and the Pew Research Center. Even amidst various scandals, Trump has maintained support from many evangelical leaders, despite allegations of sexual misconduct and extramarital affairs, which he denies. In the 2024 general election, approximately 80 percent of white evangelical voters cast their ballots for Trump, representing about 13 percent of the total US population.

The influence of evangelical voters is expected to be crucial in key states such as South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, potentially determining the Republican Party's ability to hold onto its Senate majority. Notably, some Christian faith leaders from mainline Protestant denominations, distinct from evangelical groups, are challenging Republican candidates in several races. Black Protestant evangelicals, historically aligned with the Democratic Party and the civil rights movement, continue to form a significant Democratic voting bloc.

While support for Trump among evangelicals remains strong relative to other demographic groups, it is uncertain whether these shifting attitudes will impact conservative turnout in the upcoming midterm elections, where Trump himself is not on the ballot. The Reuters report highlighted that white evangelicals were the only demographic group tracked to show over 60 percent support for Trump in the final stages of the midterms. The decline in their support for Trump was marginally less pronounced than the overall drop in his approval rating.