US on High Alert as Intelligence Suggests Iran Nearing 'Advanced Stages' of Attacks on Americans Abroad

United States intelligence agencies have issued a stark warning, indicating that Iran is in the "advanced stages" of planning to target US personnel overseas. This intelligence has prompted Washington to place its staff in the Middle East on high alert, according to US officials and an official memo obtained by Axios and The New York Times (NYT). The alert coincides with signals from the US and Israel that they may be preparing for a new military campaign against Iran. Tehran has reportedly threatened retaliation, including targeting communications cables in the Gulf.

The heightened threat assessment has led Washington, already vigilant due to escalating attacks by Iran-backed Houthis, to reduce its diplomatic presence in the Middle East, the NYT has reported, citing officials. This development sheds light on the latest US warning and its context within the broader US-Iran conflict.

What has the US said about Iran’s alleged plans to attack Americans?

A memo detailing Iranian plans to target US citizens was sent by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, first reported by Axios. In the memo, Clayton stated that US agencies had received intelligence suggesting Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel" globally, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages" in the Middle East and other nations. The NYT, also reporting on the memo, cited unnamed US officials who indicated that threats against American officials, including ambassadors, had been assessed in recent weeks, and that Iran had identified potential targets in Europe. Some intelligence suggests Iranian operatives may already be active within the US.

US Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton attends a roundtable discussion on cybercrime in the East Room of the White House, in Washington, DC, October 21 [Alex Wong/Getty Images via AFP]

What evidence has Washington presented, and what remains unverified?

While Washington has not publicly commented on the memo, the NYT cited a US official confirming its authenticity on behalf of President Donald Trump’s administration. Another official, however, downplayed Iran's capacity to execute attacks within the US and elsewhere, suggesting it lacks the full capability to realize all its ambitions.

Why have US officials raised the alarm now?

According to officials cited by the NYT, US agencies assess Iranian threats to US citizens in the Middle East as being "at the highest level" since the US-Israel war on Iran commenced in February. This assessment underpins the US's recent decision to withdraw staff from the region, the NYT added. This comes amid reported US and Israel plans to launch a new military campaign against Iran following the US mid-term elections next month. On Friday, Trump alluded to potential further action, using a codename for the US-Israel war against Iran that began on February 28.

Which countries has the US withdrawn diplomats from?

The US Department of State announced on Wednesday the removal of non-essential staff from its embassy in Saudi Arabia, citing escalating attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen against Saudi infrastructure. Staff levels have also been discreetly reduced at other US diplomatic missions in the region, according to several US media outlets. This includes embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Lebanon, CNN reported. A US official cited by the NYT stated that the threat of Houthi attacks and "Iranian terror plots targeting US officials" were influencing these staffing decisions.

Has Iran responded?

Iran has not officially responded to the news of the US intelligence memo accusing it of planning attacks on US personnel. However, Iranian officials have a history of threatening and carrying out attacks against US bases and those of its allies in the region. The Pentagon has confirmed that 21 US military personnel have been killed in the Middle East since the war on Iran began. On Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a warning that Tehran would adopt a new "offensive" strategy if the US renewed attacks. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated that Tehran would no longer confine its military operations to retaliatory strikes, highlighting improvements in the quality, range, and power of Iranian missiles. Reuters, citing two senior Iranian security officials, also reported that Tehran has detailed plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf in the event of new US-Israeli attacks. Previously, Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei had warned that cables, data centers, and artificial intelligence facilities across the region could face attacks if war with the US reignited.

Has Iran previously been accused of plotting attacks against Americans?

Yes, US authorities have consistently accused Iran of orchestrating plots against US citizens, including assassination attempts against Trump on US soil. In March of this year, a Pakistani national was convicted in a US court for plotting to assassinate Trump and other US politicians at the behest of Iran’s IRGC. An Iranian IRGC member was charged in 2022 with attempting to assassinate former US National Security Advisor John Bolton. The individual allegedly offered $300,000 to individuals in the United States to carry out the murder in Washington DC or Maryland, according to the US Department of Justice. Last year, the US intelligence community warned that Iran would "continue to directly threaten US persons globally," particularly targeting officials believed to be involved in the 2020 assassination of IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. This month, the US abruptly withdrew bombers from an airbase in the United Kingdom, citing concerns over a potential attack. This action followed a security incident at the base, which led to the arrest of several men on suspicion of working with Iranian intelligence.