Brazil's Tight Presidential Election Hinges on Millions of Abstaining Voters

Sao Paulo, Brazil – For Larissa Campelo, a 30-year-old mother of one, the upcoming Brazilian presidential election marks a departure from her past voting habits. In 2014, she supported centre-right Senator Aecio Neves, and in 2018, she backed former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad. However, ahead of what is anticipated to be one of Brazil’s closest presidential run-offs, Campelo has decided to abstain from voting, a decision she also made in the first round on October 4. While voting is compulsory for most adult Brazilians, Campelo represents a significant and growing segment of the electorate opting out of the current presidential race. In the first round, approximately 33.4 million eligible adults did not cast their ballots, resulting in a 21 percent abstention rate, the highest since 1998.

Campelo describes her abstention as a form of protest, stating, “I don’t want to dirty my hands with these candidates. This isn’t apathy. It’s because I don’t feel there’s anyone qualified enough to earn my vote.” This sentiment among abstaining voters could prove pivotal in Sunday's run-off, potentially influencing the path to victory.

The final election pits two prominent figures from Brazil's political establishment against each other. The left-wing candidate, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is seeking an unprecedented fourth, non-consecutive term. His opponent, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, a scion of a far-right political dynasty, aims to emulate his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently imprisoned. In the initial round, Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the votes cast, narrowly ahead of Lula's 45 percent, with a difference of just 2.2 million ballots among over 158.7 million registered voters. The upcoming run-off is expected to be even more competitive. A recent poll by the research firm Quaest indicated a statistical tie between the two candidates, with Bolsonaro at 50.5 percent and Lula at 49.5 percent, within the margin of error.

Experts suggest that the intense polarization within Brazilian politics has led to a segment of the electorate refusing to vote for either Lula or Bolsonaro. The Quaest poll revealed that 52 percent of respondents would never vote for Bolsonaro, while 47 percent expressed the same sentiment towards Lula, though Lula's rejection rate has reportedly decreased in the past week.

Joao Guilherme Bastos dos Santos, a director at the Democracy in Check Institute, explained that this polarization contributes to public disengagement from politics. He noted that in such a divided climate, voters are often driven by fear and a desire to oppose a candidate rather than support one, leading to profound exhaustion. Campelo echoed this sentiment, likening Brazilian politics to fervent support for a football team, where political actions are defended regardless of their validity. She recounted a recent family argument over Lula on WhatsApp, highlighting how people align themselves with specific politicians.

Political scientists like Mayra Goulart from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and Luciana Veiga from the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro suggest that abstaining voters are a diverse group with varied motivations. While some may actively reject both Lula and Bolsonaro, others might be uninterested in politics due to life's difficulties. Veiga also pointed out practical reasons for abstention, such as un-transferred voter registrations after moving, work or family obligations on election day, and the challenges faced by voters in remote areas. Additionally, voting is optional for individuals aged 16-17, those 70 and older, and illiterate citizens. Veiga noted that around 21 million of Brazil's 158.7 million electorate are not legally required to vote. The penalties for not voting are minor, typically a small fine (less than a dollar) and potential cancellation of registration after three consecutive missed elections, which can impede obtaining passports or securing civil service jobs.

With the narrow margin between the candidates, both campaigns are actively trying to appeal to first-round abstainers. Bolsonaro has proposed tax breaks to stimulate the economy and addressed his father's legal issues, stemming from Jair Bolsonaro's conviction over a coup plot. Lula's campaign has focused on reducing abstention, highlighting his past efforts to improve working conditions and proposing initiatives like free weekend public transport and debt relief for small businesses. Goulart believes these measures are more likely to attract voters who are generally uninterested in politics.

The first round appeared to benefit Bolsonaro, as many eliminated right-wing candidates' supporters are expected to shift to his camp. Historically, since Brazil's return to democracy and direct presidential elections in 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round has ever won the second round. However, Goulart cautions against relying solely on historical precedent, as voter behavior can be unpredictable. The Quaest poll indicated that support from first-round eliminated candidates is split, with Bolsonaro attracting 43 percent and Lula gaining 37 percent. Furthermore, Lula appears to have an edge among first-round abstainers, with 40 percent supporting him compared to Bolsonaro's 36 percent. Experts emphasize that even small shifts in voter turnout, particularly in regions where each candidate holds a strong base—Lula in the northeast and Bolsonaro in the south and southeast—could be decisive in this closely contested election.