Ex-Pakistani PM Blames US and Iran's Hardline Stances for Prolonged Middle East Conflict

The ongoing Middle East conflict is being prolonged by the maximalist negotiating positions of both the United States and Iran, according to a former Pakistani Prime Minister. Anwaar Ul Haq Kakar stated in a rare interview from Islamabad that these rigid stances are significant stumbling blocks to progress. "I think both sides probably choose to remain maximalist, and that is the prime reason for [a lack of] progress on this account when it comes to the resolution of the conflict," Kakar said.

Disagreements between the US and Iran center on the scope and timing of commitments needed to end the war. Key issues include an end to the US blockade of Iran’s seaports, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief for Tehran, and guarantees for a cessation of fighting across the region.

Pakistan had previously facilitated high-level diplomatic contacts between Iran and the US, following the commencement of US-Israeli operations against Iran in February. An agreement to end the war was reached in Islamabad in June, though the conflict persisted with reduced intensity. Mediators, including Pakistan, have been urging both nations to return to negotiations amidst a deadlock.

Kakar, who served as acting prime minister before Shehbaz Sharif took office in March 2024, emphasized Pakistan's primary goal: preventing the resumption of military conflict. He expressed uncertainty about achieving this, stating, "Whether we would be able to achieve that or not, that needs to be tested in probably few days or weeks from now." He also noted that recent US withdrawals of diplomatic staff from the region could signal preparations for renewed military strikes by the US and Israel, which he deemed "not a good sign."

Pakistan, already facing economic strain from energy price spikes due to the war, would experience further pressure if fighting resumes. Kakar warned of an adverse economic impact, including inflation and increased fuel prices with a trickle-down effect on other commodities, if the escalation continues.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have indicated renewed military operations against Tehran. Netanyahu stated, "There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all: overthrow the regime in Iran. And that is my directive to the [military], the Mossad and the security branches." US media have reported on preparations for renewed strikes, though Washington has stated no action would occur before the midterm elections on November 3. Kakar believes the upcoming Israeli elections will not alter the country's conflict-oriented policies.

Pakistan, along with Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and European counterparts, has urged parties to the conflict to de-escalate. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar participated in meetings in Istanbul where this message was conveyed. Islamabad has also sought to maintain diplomatic channels, with military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visiting Tehran to meet senior Iranian officials, including National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

According to Iran's Nour News, Ghalibaf informed Munir that the US must meet seven conditions outlined in a September proposal for Tehran to trust Washington. These conditions include ending US military operations, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and lifting the naval blockade. Kakar described this seven-point proposal as a "pure Iranian plan," with Pakistan's role limited to mediation and advice.

"Primarily the two parties who are in conflict here are the US and Iran, not Pakistan," Kakar stated. "We are only doing the role of mediation, so they are grown ups in the room. So they do their own proposals, both sides. We can only suggest to them what is reasonable and what should be accepted or not accepted, and the rest is their choice."

Kakar also touched upon the internal dynamics within Iran, noting the presence of both pragmatists and ideologues among the ruling elite, which complicates strategy. He highlighted the economic struggles of Iranians under decades of sanctions, contrasting their opportunities with those in neighboring countries.

Addressing regional security, Kakar, a senator from Balochistan province, discussed Pakistan's recent defense pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the Makkah defense agreement. This pact aims to support Saudi Arabia against attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. While Pakistan's legislators can debate the pact, parliamentary approval is not constitutionally required, unlike in Turkey. Pakistan has existing military agreements with Saudi Arabia, and any decision to send more troops would be a trilateral discussion.

Kakar affirmed Pakistan's commitment to defending Saudi territories, stating, "No one can peek into the future, so there are no manifested clauses where it says that Pakistan would either go to Yemen or any other country, but I'm being very cautious. All I can say is that Pakistan is fully committed to defend Saudi Arabia, no matter what." He stressed the importance of defending Makkah and Madinah, calling it a "red line" for Pakistan and the Muslim world.

The Makkah pact is seen as a way for regional countries to fill the security vacuum left by the US's reduced role. Kakar indicated that future expansion of the pact, which focuses on a long-term regional security architecture, would be a systematic process involving applications from interested parties and deliberation by the Makkah agreement secretariat.

Regarding the conflict with insurgents in neighboring Afghanistan, Kakar reiterated Pakistan's demand for an end to the presence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters. He believes that once this is resolved, the situation would normalize within 24 hours. He cited the widespread availability of weapons in the region following the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban in 2021 as a major challenge, leading to Pakistan's precision strikes against TTP presence on Afghan soil.

Responding to criticism of civilian casualties in Pakistani strikes, Kakar argued that the TTP's use of civilian clothing does not exempt them from being legitimate targets.