US Ranchers Face Economic Uncertainty as Trade Policies and Shrinking Herd Impact Profits Ahead of Midterms

America’s cattle herd is currently near its smallest size since 1951. In late August, United States President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on certain beef tariffs, a move intended to lower import costs, particularly from Brazil, and subsequently reduce consumer prices. However, this decision was perceived as a betrayal by many US ranchers who were preparing to bring their cattle to market. While the ultimate effect on grocery prices remains to be seen, ranchers experienced an immediate impact, with prices at cattle auctions falling, thereby reducing their profits.

Major rancher representative organizations, including the United States Cattlemen’s Association, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, and the Farm Bureau, voiced their opposition to the tariff decision. Several Republican members of Congress from rural districts also distanced themselves from the policy. It is still uncertain how ranchers will vote in the upcoming midterms or if their votes will be decisive in key races.

Chad Basinger, a rancher from Pretty Prairie, Kansas, expressed skepticism about the significant impact of increased imports. He noted that while some individuals might alter their voting behavior due to dissatisfaction with the administration, he does not anticipate a substantial overall shift. Basinger also pointed to other administration actions, such as the $8 billion in farm relief announced in Kansas on October 19, which ranchers will consider.

Basinger’s House of Representatives district in Kansas is expected to remain firmly Republican. However, Kansas is experiencing a surprisingly competitive Senate race, and ranchers in House districts in other cattle-producing regions like Montana, Iowa, Texas, and Colorado could find themselves in politically contested areas.

Despite these potential impacts, it is unlikely that ranchers alone will determine election outcomes. Ranchers, and farmers more broadly, constitute a diminishing portion of the rural electorate and represent a smaller practical voting bloc than often perceived. The shrinking US cattle herd, now near its 1951 low, mirrors a decline in the number of ranchers. Ongoing concerns about tariffs, fuel prices, and drought may further reduce the ranching population.

David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University who advises ranchers, suggested that high cattle prices this year should have encouraged ranchers to invest and expand their herds. He stated that making imports cheaper works against the market signal to increase domestic production, a sentiment that has angered many.

Tariff changes have previously affected cattle supplies. Last year, a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, a significant beef trade partner, increased the cost of importing Brazilian lean beef, often used to blend with US beef for hamburger patties. In February, President Trump allowed increased tariff-free beef imports from Argentina, followed by similar measures for Brazil and Paraguay in August. These tariff adjustments have led to rapid price fluctuations in the often-volatile cattle futures markets.

Beyond trade policies, cattle prices have also been influenced by supply and demand factors, including plant closures by meatpackers, labor shortages at Kansas packing plants due to ICE actions, and the reopening of the southern border after a New World screwworm disease closure. The long-term decline in the US cattle herd is more closely linked to intensifying drought cycles exacerbated by rising temperatures than to short-term price changes. However, tariff changes introduce additional uncertainty, as noted by Anderson, who described it as a