Saddam Haftar's Strategic Gambit: Navigating Turkish Deal and US Ambitions for Libya's Presidency

Eastern Libya, after nearly seven years of opposition to the maritime memorandum between Turkiye and its Tripoli-based rivals, has reversed its stance. Last week, the House of Representatives (HoR) in Benghazi ratified the deal in a single legislative session. This move, condemned by the European Union, Greece, Israel, and Egypt, is seen less as a Turkish victory and more as the culmination of a strategy orchestrated by Saddam Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar, the military commander controlling eastern Libya. Saddam's ultimate objective is the Libyan presidency.

The United States, through senior adviser Massad Boulos, is reportedly brokering a power-sharing arrangement that could see Saddam installed as president. However, this requires Ankara's crucial backing, given its influence in western Libya. The ratification of the maritime deal is thus a calculated step to secure Turkey's approval.

Saddam's pursuit of the presidency began with a significant political maneuver: the ousting of HoR speaker Aguila Saleh, a key ally of Cairo and a major obstacle to the memorandum's ratification. Saleh's removal not only addressed Egyptian interests but also cleared the path for a potential power transition, with Khalifa Haftar's advanced age suggesting an imminent succession. Saleh's successor, Al-Salhin Abdulnabi, who chairs the Libyan-Turkish friendship committee, is positioned to mitigate tribal opposition and signal the HoR's new direction.

The success of this gambit hinges on Washington's willingness to facilitate a Libyan deal, influenced by Turkish and Emirati lobbying and the rapport between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump. This strategy pits Trump's transactional approach against the long-standing US partnership with Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, which are uneasy about Ankara's growing influence. Saddam may also leverage this stance domestically, portraying himself as a defender against Israeli interests.

Meanwhile, the European Union appears to have marginalized itself in Libyan affairs. Following Benghazi's expulsion of EU officials in July 2025, European capitals responded with little assertiveness. Athens, despite hosting Saddam, received no commitment on alternative maritime arrangements, highlighting the EU's focus on migration control over political engagement.

Abu Dhabi strongly supports Saddam's ascent, viewing his installation as the culmination of its decade-long investment in the Haftar project. While a maritime line favoring Ankara might be a price for this outcome, it could also constrain Saddam. Egypt remains a critical factor, with its objections to the memorandum framed in legal terms, possibly leaving political options open. Cairo's warming ties with Ankara, particularly on issues concerning Sudan and the Red Sea, and a shared wariness of Israel, could influence its stance. Commercial deals might appease Egypt, but Cairo could also leverage its relationship with Ankara to support an alternative Haftar heir, such as Saddam's brother Khaled, who is reportedly closer to Cairo and has publicly criticized the US initiative.

Should Egypt pivot, Saddam's bargaining power would diminish, having already secured Turkish support. His most significant remaining leverage, which Abu Dhabi might not permit him to use, involves cutting support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces to gain favor with Ankara and Cairo. However, this risks alienating Abu Dhabi, a crucial patron.

Saddam is betting on maintaining the support of Abu Dhabi and Ankara while Washington finalizes the deal. The risks involved suggest a degree of desperation, as the alternative to an institutionalized succession could be violent contestation among his siblings or disenfranchised groups. The maritime memorandum, a consequence of Tripoli's need for Turkish intervention to repel Khalifa Haftar's 2020 offensive, ironically represents the potential cornerstone of the Haftar dynasty, transforming a symbol of past defeat into a foundation for future power.