Middle East Conflict's Ripple Effect: African Food Security Threatened by Soaring Fuel and Fertilizer Costs, Officials Warn

African nations are grappling with the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict, as escalating fuel and fertilizer prices pose a significant threat to food affordability, according to regional trade ministers and a senior United Nations trade official. Luz Maria de la Mora, director of the Division on International Trade and Commodities at UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), emphasized the urgency of resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, stating it needs to be addressed 'sooner rather than later' to ensure fertilizer remains accessible for rural communities. Speaking at the World Investment Forum in Doha, Qatar, de la Mora warned that the surge in fertilizer prices could adversely impact next year's harvests, potentially affecting both the availability and cost of food.

The conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran has underscored the global dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade. The UNCTAD World Investment Forum, held on October 25 and 26, convened leaders, policymakers, and investors to discuss global investment and sustainable development against this backdrop.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has had tangible effects on African economies. In Zimbabwe, where over 70 percent of the population relies on agriculture, rising fuel and fertilizer costs are a major concern, as highlighted by Monica Mutsvangwa, the country’s minister of women affairs, community, small and medium enterprise development. Similarly, Uganda, another predominantly agrarian economy, has experienced a more than doubling of fuel prices, according to Sanjay Tanna, the country’s minister of trade, industry and cooperatives.

Beyond immediate energy costs, the increased oil prices have disrupted supply chains, with consequences that are proving more persistent than initially anticipated, de la Mora noted. The crisis has also revealed differing capacities among African economies to withstand global disruptions. Uganda's reliance on subsistence farming has provided some buffer against international market volatility, Tanna explained, though the nation's currency has depreciated by 10 percent against the US dollar since mid-2026.

For Zimbabwe, the situation has reinforced the need to attract investment while navigating complex geopolitical relationships. Mutsvangwa stated that Harare positions itself as a potential partner for investors from all sides, emphasizing a policy of neutrality and a focus on national development. The country's abundant mineral resources, including lithium and graphite, along with its tourism potential, are seen as key attractions.

De la Mora acknowledged the challenges developing economies face in attracting foreign capital, which tends to concentrate in a limited number of countries due to investors' need for certainty regarding returns. She suggested that transparent institutions, the rule of law, and investments in infrastructure, such as reliable energy and digital connectivity, are crucial for building investor confidence.

Uganda's trade minister, Sanjay Tanna, expressed a candid view on the fairness of the international trading system, stating, 'Of course not. The world cannot be equal… It's unfair, but we believe that, within the space that we are in, we are in a good space.' He highlighted Uganda's domestic food production as a significant advantage amid global supply chain pressures.

Both Uganda and the Republic of Congo are focusing on building resilient economies by investing in their youth and aligning national development plans with broader African Union ambitions. Jean-Jacques Bouya, the Republic of Congo’s Deputy Prime Minister for Coordination, Development Infrastructure and Land Planning, stressed the importance of connectivity through electricity, digital infrastructure, and physical links. The Republic of Congo also aims to enhance local processing of its natural resources to retain more value within the country, moving away from being solely a supplier of raw materials.