Israel's Pivotal Election: A Nation Leans Right Amidst Conflict and Controversy

Israel is on the cusp of a critical election, with polls opening Tuesday in what is being described as one of the most significant votes in the nation's history. This election marks the first since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent extensive military operations in Gaza. The conflict has also seen Israel engage in broader actions against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister and leader of the Likud party, is vying to extend his leadership. He heads the country's most right-wing governing coalition to date, a union of far-right ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. Facing potential charges from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Gaza and a persistent corruption trial, Netanyahu is fighting for his political future. His primary opposition comes from a self-proclaimed Zionist bloc that has largely adopted a right-wing stance on Israel's complex challenges.

Key issues dominating the campaign include accountability for alleged security lapses, debates over military conscription for the ultra-Orthodox community, and the exclusion of Arab-led parties from potential government coalitions. These factors have further diminished hopes for any substantial improvement in the lives of Palestinians, as deadly incidents continue almost daily in Gaza despite a year-long ceasefire. Meanwhile, settler violence and Israeli army raids have intensified in the occupied West Bank.

Sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani told Al Jazeera that the entire Israeli political system operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy. He stated, "None of the leaders who present themselves as an alternative to Netanyahu can genuinely be described as left-wing. The horrifying reality we are witnessing is not simply the product of Netanyahu or the far right. It is rooted in Zionist political thought itself, which is structured around the principle of Jewish supremacy. There is no way around this fundamental fact."

The shift to the right in Israel did not originate with Netanyahu's most recent government formed in 2022, nor solely with the rightward political movement observed after the October 7 attacks. Decades of failed peace processes with the Palestinians and recurring security crises have systematically weakened the political center and left. This has paved the way for significant legislative developments, such as the 2018 Nation-State Law, which codified Jewish supremacy, and the ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements into occupied Palestinian territory with minimal government intervention.

While the trend towards the right predated the current government, analysts agree that its pace has accelerated dramatically under Netanyahu. His administration has faced accusations of attempting to reshape the country according to its ideology. This includes efforts to curtail the Supreme Court's power to review government actions and disregard for its rulings, particularly concerning the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox minority. The coalition's stability was bolstered by figures like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who provided crucial support for Netanyahu's controversial judicial overhaul initiated in early 2023. These ministers have also been instrumental in encouraging and shielding the surge in violence in the West Bank, while deflecting accountability for alleged security failures preceding the October 7 attacks.

Israeli analyst Ahron Bregman suggested that a change in prime minister, even if the opposition wins, would initially alter the national atmosphere. "Those who admire him, and there are many in Israel, regard him as God. Those who hate him, and there are many in Israel, hate him deeply," Bregman said of Netanyahu. "He’s a very divisive figure. A new prime minister is likely to calm things down."

The election's outcome is being closely monitored regionally and internationally, with analysts emphasizing that the stakes extend beyond the candidates to the fundamental character and future direction of Israel. Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, commented, "The decision facing Israel of whether to retain a Netanyahu-led government or not is ultimately the decision on whether to live in a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only." He added, "It’s the choice between maintaining the occupation of the West Bank or annexing it entirely and the population’s ‘voluntary migration’ from there, as figures within the government have actually suggested."

Bregman indicated that a victory for the opposition might restore a respect for process and the rule of law, contrasting it with Netanyahu's governing style. However, he cautioned against expecting significant policy shifts, stating, "Don’t be mistaken. Israel, particularly after 7 October, turned sharply to the right, and any new government will reflect and mirror this reality."

Analysts and observers agree that the election will not offer a chance to challenge the foreign and security policies that have led to over 74,000 deaths in Gaza, increased violence in the West Bank, and multiple wars, including one impacting Iran's energy routes and global markets. Mainstream candidates have not discussed including Arab-led parties in potential coalitions. Media coverage often uses references to leaders of Ra’am or the Joint List to criticize rivals for considering alliances with Palestinian politicians.

Shenhav-Shahrabani explained that ultra-Orthodox parties would likely be welcomed into a post-election government by either coalition, while Arab-led parties, representing a significant portion of Israel's population, would remain excluded due to a system built on prejudice. "The distinction is not between democratic and anti-democratic forces, but between Jews and Palestinians. As long as there is no genuine binational political vision, racism and the systematic restriction of Palestinian rights will remain fundamental features of Israeli society," he asserted.

This exclusionary framework influences not only government formation but also the campaign's focus. Netanyahu's challengers have largely framed their criticisms around competence, timing, and accountability for pre-October 7 failures, rather than directly challenging the treatment of Palestinians. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, questioned the possibility of a referendum on the Gaza situation, stating, "How can it be a referendum on genocide, or anything to do with the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza? You would have to have one side arguing it was a good thing and the other arguing it was a bad thing, let alone acknowledging that it was a genocide. So, no, obviously none of that is on the ballot." Levy concluded, "The treatment of Palestinians by the Israeli state and military is a consensus among Zionist parties," with disagreements centering on "whether it’s the state’s job to oppress Palestinians, or if the settler militias also have a role – a significant role – to play."