Arab Voters' Record Turnout Poised to Influence Israeli Election Outcome

The upcoming Israeli elections on Tuesday are anticipated to see an unprecedented surge in Arab voter turnout, potentially granting Arab politicians significant leverage in shaping the next government, according to political sources speaking to The National. Senior opposition figures have also indicated the possibility of forming a coalition or a supported minority government with Arab parties, should the larger political blocs fail to secure an outright majority.

Opinion polls, which have now closed under Israeli law, suggest the opposition could garner 56 seats, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to win 50. The Arab parties are expected to secure 14 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. With 61 seats required to form a government, the opposition, led by Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot, faces a choice between forming a minority government with the tacit backing of Arab parties or entering a coalition with the Ra’am party, headed by Mansour Abbas.

The influence of Arab parties could be amplified by a substantial increase in votes for Ra’am and the Joint List, with turnout expected to climb from approximately 50 percent to 70 percent among the two million Arab citizens who constitute 20 percent of Israel's population. An Israeli political observer noted, “After what they have witnessed over the past three years, they have understood the difference between bad and worse,” referencing the impact of hard-right parties on political discourse.

If the bloc opposing Mr. Netanyahu assumes power, significant measures are expected to be implemented to curb settler violence and dismantle illegal structures in the occupied West Bank, as stated by an opposition source. “We will clamp down on settler violence, which has gone on for too long, because it is a disgrace to the country and because it is wrong. We will also stop wildcat home building because we believe in law and order,” the source added.

The Israeli Knesset has 120 seats, with 61 needed to form a government. A coalition involving Ra’am represents one of three potential election outcomes. The other possibilities include a coalition between center-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, or a “government of unity” that might see Mr. Eisenkot as prime minister, potentially including Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud.

Numerous variables and factors remain in play that could still sway the election results. Approximately 700,000 first-time voters, who have experienced the Covid-19 pandemic, Israeli judicial reforms, the October 7 attacks, and military service, could influence the outcome. Additionally, up to 70,000 Israelis residing abroad have returned to vote, with a majority reportedly opposing Mr. Netanyahu. A similar number of Russian emigres, who left Russia after the 2022 Ukraine invasion, are believed to lean towards the more liberal camp.

Key issues with existential implications for Israel are also central to the election. Some officials consider integrating the ultra-Orthodox into conscripted military service crucial for national security, a proposal opposed by their parties. Currently, 72,000 ultra-Orthodox men aged 18 to 21 are classified as “deserters” for not enlisting. Discussions are also underway regarding a “declaration of independence” to establish a written constitution and introduce term limits for prime ministers, a move that would affect Mr. Netanyahu, who has served nearly 20 years across three terms.

Israel is also grappling with other challenges, including potential international sanctions from European countries and a declining birth rate, with exceptions among the Arab and ultra-Orthodox populations, who each account for about 50 percent of school children. However, some observers speculate that the status quo may prevail, with the concept of Zionist parties collaborating with Arab groups remaining unpalatable to a significant portion of the electorate. One opposition figure expressed concern: “My concern is that they will opt for the unity government [with Mr. Netanyahu] because they are cowards and it is politically convenient.”