Arab Parties Poised for Record Gains in Israeli Elections Amidst Historic Palestinian Voter Turnout

Exit polls from Israel's recent elections suggest a significant surge in representation for Arab parties, with projections indicating they could secure 18 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This potential record outcome is attributed to the highest voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel in decades.

Data from Tuesday's vote indicates that the leading Arab-led factions, the Joint List and Ra’am (United Arab List), are on track to achieve a historic number of parliamentary seats. Concurrently, exit polling shows the opposition bloc, headed by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party bloc are in a statistical tie, each with 51 seats.

Voter turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel reportedly reached approximately 80 percent, a figure that surpasses 1999 records, according to Israel’s Channel 12. Mansour Abbas, the leader of Ra’am, expressed hope that the final results would enable the anti-Netanyahu bloc, including his party, to gather the 61 seats necessary to form a government. "With the numbers we have now, there is no government," Abbas stated to Israel’s Channel 12. Abbas, whose Ra’am party previously held five seats and was part of the governing coalition from 2021 to 2022, noted that both major blocs had engaged with his party prior to and following the election.

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, commented to Al Jazeera that forming a government could be challenging for parties like Eisenkot's, which had been narrowly ahead in earlier polls, due to campaign promises to avoid coalitions with Arab parties. "There’s a price to pay," Pinkas observed, emphasizing that "Arabs can’t be kept outside and only being considered and co-opted when you need their votes." He further suggested that Arab-led lists would likely present demands that a Jewish-led coalition might not endorse.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and his far-right coalition made a final push to mobilize supporters on election day, raising concerns about the increased turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel. Arab politicians condemned this tactic as racist and inflammatory. Witnesses reported that cars bearing Netanyahu’s Likud party flags drove through Jerusalem, broadcasting the Islamic call to prayer and urging voters to cast ballots due to high Arab turnout. Netanyahu also shared social media posts highlighting long queues at polling stations in Arab communities and an image he claimed depicted Arab voters, including women wearing the niqab, waiting to vote. He warned, "If we don’t wake up now, we’ll find ourselves with a government of Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi," referencing prominent Palestinian members of the Knesset.

Overall voter turnout reached 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999, as reported by the Central Elections Committee. Palestinian citizens of Israel constitute about 21 percent of the nation's 10 million population and have historically voted at lower rates than Jewish Israelis.

Nour Odeh, reporting for Al Jazeera from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, described the election as an "existential moment for Palestinian-Israelis." She noted that the record turnout included individuals who typically boycott elections, having previously felt their votes would not influence their reality or alter the systemic discrimination they face. Odeh highlighted that the Knesset has enacted over 100 laws discriminating against Palestinian citizens of Israel, who also experience disparities in state funding.