Egypt's Military Rule Enters New Phase as Sisi Signals 2030 Departure

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's recent announcement of his intention to leave office after his third presidential term concludes in April 2030 has surprised many observers. This comes despite widespread expectations that he might seek to amend the constitution for an extended tenure. Speaking at the Egyptian Military Academy's graduation ceremony, el-Sisi emphasized that his departure is definitive and that the constitution would not be altered.

Speculation abounds regarding the motivations behind this decision. Some suggest it's a strategic move to garner popular support for a potential fourth term or to preempt any internal military opposition. However, a significant possibility is that el-Sisi is orchestrating the next phase of military dominance in Egypt.

Voluntarily relinquishing power presents inherent risks for authoritarian leaders. For el-Sisi, stepping down in 2030 could expose him to future accountability for the country's issues, including alleged past crimes. His presidency began with a 2013 coup against Mohamed Morsi, followed by significant crackdowns on political opponents, activists, and journalists. Furthermore, his economic stewardship has faced criticism for alleged corruption, poor fiscal management, and extravagant spending on non-essential projects. Egypt's debt has reached 81 percent of its GDP, with interest payments alone surpassing combined expenditures on healthcare, education, wages, and subsidies. The Egyptian pound has depreciated over 80 percent against the US dollar since 2014, and cumulative inflation has exceeded 460 percent.

In light of these economic challenges, el-Sisi's 2030 departure announcement was unexpected. Some analysts believe he may not intend to leave office and could retract his statement, as he has done previously. For instance, after the 2013 overthrow of Morsi, el-Sisi denied plans to run for president. Similarly, despite stating in 2017 his commitment to the constitution's two four-year terms, he later supported amendments in 2019. A judicial source indicated to Mada Masr that el-Sisi's announcement leaves room for a 'popular call' for him to remain president.

Another potential motive is to preempt a military intervention, which could escalate if the economic situation deteriorates further. The military's actions in 2011, forcing Hosni Mubarak to step down amidst popular protests, serve as a precedent. The army might seek to appease public discontent by positioning el-Sisi as a scapegoat, removing him from power, and installing a successor who can maintain stability and protect the military's extensive economic interests. A member of parliament recently shared that el-Sisi has privately expressed a preference to step down rather than be forced out by the military.

However, a more probable scenario is that el-Sisi is preparing to exit the presidency while ensuring the perpetuation of Egypt's military-controlled political system. His reference to Article 200 of the constitution during the announcement is noteworthy. This article, amended in 2019, grants the armed forces a significant role in Egyptian politics, tasking them with safeguarding the nation's 'democracy' and citizens' rights. El-Sisi stated its purpose is to shield Egypt from infiltration and from those incapable of governing.

Article 200, coupled with Article 234—which mandates presidential approval from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces for defense minister appointments—grants the military substantial influence over political affairs. El-Sisi's proposed framework for selecting the next president further amplifies the military's role. His plan involves establishing an expert committee to draft legislation for training highly educated Egyptians at the Egyptian Military Academy. These prospective candidates, envisioned to hold doctoral degrees and be aged 40-50, would undergo 30 months of specialized training on the Egyptian state. This program would also extend to future ministers, governors, and members of parliament.

This proposed selection mechanism, in conjunction with Articles 200 and 234, appears designed to maintain military dominance long after el-Sisi's departure. Such an arrangement could also benefit him personally, as a military-aligned successor would be unlikely to investigate alleged corruption, past massacres, or other potential crimes committed during his tenure, unlike a truly independent civilian president.

The critical question remains how the increasingly dissatisfied Egyptian public will react to a political transition managed by the military, which diminishes the significance of a popular mandate. While el-Sisi and the military seem intent on shaping Egypt's political future, the populace may ultimately have the final say.