Israel's Coalition Conundrum: Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot in Post-Election Government Formation Battle

(Al Jazeera) Israelis headed to the polls on October 27, but the election has not yielded a clear victor. As with all governments in Israel's history, the next administration will require a coalition. The central challenge now is identifying who can garner at least 61 out of the Knesset's 120 seats to establish a government and assume the role of Israel's next prime minister. Al Jazeera has developed an interactive tool allowing users to explore various party combinations. You can begin with any of the four exit polls or input your own seat allocations. Subsequently, add parties until your coalition reaches the 61-seat majority. It is possible to include an entire bloc at once or select parties individually.

Who is leading? Initial tallies from the Central Elections Committee indicate the Likud party is the largest single party, securing 27 seats. Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 54 seats, contrasting with Gadi Eisenkot's 50 seats. Four exit polls released on election night highlighted the closeness of the race. Kan 11 and Channel 13 reported Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc as tied at 51 seats each. Channel 12 favored Netanyahu with 52 seats to Eisenkot's 49, while Channel 15 was the most favorable to the incumbent, projecting 55 seats for Netanyahu's bloc against the opposition's 49.

How many seats are required? Israel's parliament, the Knesset, comprises 120 seats. Parties earn seats proportionally to their share of the national vote, provided they surpass the 3.25 percent threshold for parliamentary entry. A government requires the backing of a minimum of 61 lawmakers to achieve a majority. Neither of the primary blocs has reached this threshold in the exit polls or the initial count. The subsequent phase involves identifying sufficient parties willing to unite and bridge the gap.

(Al Jazeera) Why is government formation proving so challenging? The Arab-led parties Ra’am and the Joint List could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome, with exit polls suggesting their combined support ranges between 16 and 19 seats. However, the political hurdles are substantial. Netanyahu has publicly denounced a coalition with Arab parties as "shameful," and leading figures within the Jewish-led opposition have also rejected the possibility of governing with them. This leaves potential coalitions that might appear viable on paper but face significant political obstacles.

Which parties constitute each bloc? Netanyahu's bloc encompasses Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right parties Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Eisenkot's opposition bloc includes his Yashar party, the Together list associated with former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan’s Democrats.

What are the next steps? Once the results are officially certified, the president will grant the mandate to the Knesset member deemed most capable of assembling a majority. That individual will have 28 days to form a government, with a potential extension of up to 14 days. Should they fail, another lawmaker may be given the opportunity. If no one succeeds in forming a government, Israel might face another election, mirroring the repeated elections held between 2019 and 2022.

(Al Jazeera) Netanyahu, who has served as Israel's longest-serving prime minister with 19 years in office across three terms, continues as caretaker prime minister while coalition negotiations proceed. He is also currently on trial for corruption charges, which he denies. Official results are anticipated by November 4. The negotiations to form a government could extend considerably beyond that date.