Arab Parties Eye Netanyahu's Ouster as Israeli Election Delivers Hung Parliament

Politicians representing Israel's Arab minority are setting their sights on removing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following an election result that is poised to significantly increase their representation in the Knesset. With the vast majority of ballots counted, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor the primary opposition, led by former army general Gadi Eisenkot, has secured a majority in the 120-seat parliament. Both rival camps are clustered around 50 seats each, with Mr. Netanyahu's bloc projected to be slightly larger than Mr. Eisenkot's.

Arab parties are expected to win approximately 18 seats, a notable increase from the 10 seats won in the previous election, potentially positioning them as kingmakers in the formation of a new government. This indecisive outcome suggests that the process of forming a government could extend for weeks or even months of complex negotiations. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has urged all parties to avoid a premature second election and to engage in talks with an "open mind." The final vote tallies are anticipated by Thursday.

Voter turnout for this election reached 77.7 percent, marking the highest participation rate since 1999. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint Arab List, stated that the bloc is "ready and prepared to pave the way for the ousting of the Netanyahu government" after achieving the highest vote share among Arab parties. Mr. Jabareen called for a "true and equal partnership" between Jewish and Arab Israelis, proposing an alternative to "a government of bloodshed, against a politics of supremacy, racism and exclusion." Ahmad Tibi, head of the Arab Movement for Change, framed the choice starkly as "either Bibi or Tibi," referring to Mr. Netanyahu's nickname, and indicated that Arab parties would support an Eisenkot government but not work with Mr. Netanyahu.

Turnout saw a significant surge in Arab communities, with some voters who had previously boycotted Israeli elections participating for the first time, with Israeli broadcasters suggesting it may have reached 80 percent. However, forming a coalition to oust Mr. Netanyahu presents considerable challenges. Aligning with Arab parties could be perceived as a politically risky move for Jewish Israeli politicians, particularly given the sensitive nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some opposition figures had ruled out such a prospect during the campaign. Nevertheless, Yair Golan of the center-left Democrats urged an agreement with Arab parties, asserting that Mr. Netanyahu had lost his parliamentary majority and that "We have a majority. We have responsibility. And we have an opportunity to form a government of change in partnership with Israel’s Arab citizens. A government that will serve all Israeli citizens."

While Mr. Eisenkot has not directly reached out to Arab parties, he stated that the Israeli public "has voted for change." Arab politicians have previously played a role in Israeli governance; in 2021, party leader Mansour Abbas became the first Arab minister in an Israeli government. His Ra'am party is currently forecast to win around seven seats. Even without a formal coalition, Arab parties could potentially support a minority government through tolerance. Despite the challenges, Mr. Netanyahu remains a formidable political figure, having navigated numerous scandals and political crises to govern Israel for all but 18 months since 2009. His Likud party is expected to be the largest single party in the Knesset, indicating a persistent base of support despite policies that critics argue have damaged Israel's international standing.

The possibility of a prolonged post-election period has raised concerns that Mr. Netanyahu might exploit the situation for political gain, potentially by initiating action against Iran. This Israeli election occurred just a week before US President Donald Trump faced voters in the US midterms, amid growing fears of renewed conflict following both elections. Mr. Eisenkot addressed supporters, characterizing the incumbent prime minister as lacking a mandate and warning, "Netanyahu, do not dare use Israel's security for your political needs." Mr. Netanyahu had centered his campaign on security, positioning himself as the sole candidate capable of confronting Israel's adversaries. Speaking to supporters early on election night, he emphasized his relationship with Mr. Trump and their shared goal to "remove this threat" of Iran.

Mr. Eisenkot had emerged as the leading opposition candidate, surpassing an alliance of former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. His campaign focused on a platform of straightforward honesty, though most main candidates hold hawkish stances on Iran and show little enthusiasm for a Palestinian state. The campaign unfolded against the backdrop of the Iran conflict and settler violence in the occupied West Bank. Mr. Netanyahu also faces accusations of overseeing war crimes during Israel's Gaza campaign, which he denies. Ghazi Al Majdalawi, a Palestinian activist from Gaza, viewed the increased Arab participation positively, suggesting that removing Mr. Netanyahu could bring "some relief." He noted, "It is true that whoever comes after Netanyahu may not be any better, but at least we would see a different leader and find out what policies he might pursue." Another Gaza resident, Akram Abu Hajar, expressed hope that the Arab politicians would leverage their enhanced influence to oppose Israeli policies, stating, "What we hope is that our fellow Palestinians inside Israel will do everything they can to form alliances that could bring down Netanyahu‘s government."

Israel's Central Elections Committee confirmed that most votes were counted by Wednesday afternoon. Under Israeli law, government formation follows a defined legal process. The President first tasks a Knesset member with forming a coalition, granting them up to 42 days. If unsuccessful, a second candidate has 28 days, followed by a final 21-day period for any Knesset member to attempt to secure 61 supporters. Failure in all stages would trigger a new election. President Herzog indicated he would commence consultations with all political groups after the final results are published next week, emphasizing, "One thing must be clear, and I said this before the elections too: we must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. So I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind." Israeli financial markets reacted negatively to the inconclusive election result, with the shekel depreciating approximately 2 percent against the dollar, one of the steepest global currency declines. The Tel Aviv stock index fell about 3 percent, marking its largest drop since June.

Israel has a recent history of political deadlock, having held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to repeated difficulties in forming stable governments. The coalition ultimately led by Mr. Netanyahu was characterized as the most right-wing in Israel's history. Additional reporting was provided by Nagham Mohanna.