US Midterms 2026: Democrats Lead National Polls as Crucial Senate Races Tighten

With just five days remaining until the United States midterm elections, Democrats hold a lead in national polls, though several key Senate races remain highly competitive. President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama, and Vice President JD Vance were actively campaigning on Wednesday across Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina, as both major parties vie for control of Congress.

What the Latest Polls Indicate

According to RealClearPolling’s national polling average, Democrats are ahead of Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a margin of 8.2 percentage points. However, this national advantage does not consistently translate to every Senate contest.

In Texas, a state where Democrats have not secured a Senate victory since 1988, Democrat James Talarico is narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton with 48.5 percent to 46.7 percent, based on the poll aggregator’s data. Meanwhile, in Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has expanded his lead over Republican Mike Rogers to seven percentage points, a recent poll by Mitchell Research conducted for CBS Detroit revealed. The survey, conducted between October 26-27, showed El-Sayed with 51 percent support compared to Rogers' 44 percent, an increase from a 4.2-point lead earlier in the month. RealClearPolling indicated a tighter race, with El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent.

Despite these leads, Democrats are intensifying their efforts to engage young voters in Michigan. Will Lawrence, a Democratic candidate for Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, emphasized the importance of young people in the electoral coalition, stating, “We need everybody and young people are a huge part of the coalition and could really be the difference-maker on November 3rd.”

Democratic Congressman Maxwell Frost, who traveled from Florida to support El-Sayed, highlighted the significance of direct voter engagement. “Everyone’s seen the negative bigoted ads and Islamophobic ads, but what hasn’t happened is everyone hasn’t had person-to-person conversation about why Abdul is the right senator for Michigan,” Frost commented.

Republicans are also targeting young voters, with one supporter suggesting, “I think there’s definitely a movement that people don’t realise in Gen Z that is turning more conservative.”

Beyond Michigan, some voters expressed dissatisfaction with both parties. “Each party wants to be in power and I think they’ll say what they think they want their voters to hear,” one voter shared in Lexington, Kentucky. Democratic strategist Joel Rubin characterized the midterms as a potential “protest election,” with many Democratic voters motivated by a desire to curb President Trump’s influence. “I think that overwhelmingly American voters who will vote Democratic are voting because they want to put a check on President Trump’s power,” Rubin stated.

Republican strategist Suhail Khan noted that Trump might be losing some support among his own base due to concerns over rising fuel prices, rents, and mortgage costs. “I keep voting and I’m independent, I vote both sides … I’m so frustrated and out of hope,” another voter remarked in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.

Can Democrats Secure Control of Congress?

Democrats aim to unseat Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, although the Senate presents a greater challenge. They require a net gain of three seats in the House and four in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats. Democrats, along with two independents who caucus with them, hold 47 seats. Achieving 51 seats is necessary for Senate control, but the path to this majority is complex.

Al Jazeera’s Scott McLean observed, “Even the most optimistic of Republicans will tell you that it’s going to be pretty tough for the GOP to hold on to the House of Representatives. Different story when it comes to the US Senate, though.” McLean added that even if Democrats win in North Carolina and Ohio and retain their current seats, they would still be two seats short of the 51 needed for a majority. Potential gains in Alaska and Texas could help bridge this gap. However, Republicans are also contending for Michigan, where the race remains close.

Gaining control of the House alone would significantly impact Trump's presidency, enabling Democrats to block legislative initiatives and launch investigations into his administration. Such a scenario would also allow them to summon administration officials to testify before congressional committees, though the White House could contest these demands.

Campaign Trail Developments

In Ohio, Trump campaigned for Republican Senator Jon Husted, who is running against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. During the rally, Trump defended Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy against criticism regarding an advertisement featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic rival, Amy Acton, asserting Ramaswamy was being treated “very unfairly.” Trump also addressed the Jeffrey Epstein controversy after protesters interrupted his speech, stating he had removed the late sex offender from his Mar-a-Lago club two decades prior.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, former President Obama joined Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms. Obama criticized the Republican response to his joke about White House renovations, suggesting their focus was misplaced compared to the escalating cost of living. “These are not serious people. They don’t have solutions to actual problems,” he stated.

In North Carolina, JD Vance rallied in support of Republican Michael Whatley, who is competing against former Governor Roy Cooper for a Senate seat.

What's Next?

Trump is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina on Thursday, followed by events in Florida on Friday and Kansas on Saturday. South Carolina is among the Republican-held Senate seats targeted by Democrats, despite the state's traditionally conservative leaning. Vice President JD Vance is slated for a rally in Weatherford, Texas, where Republican candidate Ken Paxton faces a tight race against Democrat James Talarico. Talarico is also scheduled to campaign in Dallas on Friday.

Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle reported from Texas that Republicans are particularly concerned about voter turnout in rural areas, where early voting percentages lag behind more populated metropolitan regions. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to campaign in Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat against Republican Mike Collins. Early in-person voting in Georgia concludes on Friday, marking the final push for both parties before Election Day.