Israel Election Standoff: No Clear Winner as Blocs Fall Short, Arab Parties Make Historic Gains

Israel's parliamentary election on Tuesday concluded without a decisive victor, with nearly 90 percent of ballots counted and both major political blocs failing to secure the 61 seats necessary to form a government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is expected to obtain 48 seats. Notably, Arab-majority parties achieved a historic high, winning 19 seats, propelled by a remarkable turnout of approximately 80 percent among Palestinian citizens of Israel. This significant outcome has positioned the Arab parties as crucial players in coalition negotiations, despite several party leaders having previously ruled out governing with them. The article examines the pre-election and election-day rhetoric of the main contenders and their performance in the vote.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Likud: Netanyahu expressed strong confidence leading up to the election, telling The Jerusalem Post on October 22, "I’m gonna have five more terms." On the Sunday before the vote, he targeted the opposition, with Haaretz reporting a Channel 14 broadcast where Netanyahu warned that an opposition victory would lead to granting citizenship to "hundreds of thousands of Palestinians," which he characterized as the "end of the Jewish state." On election day, he stated that forming a government with Arab-led parties would be "a shame and a disgrace" and "simply forbidden – simply forbidden – to endanger Israel and to establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties." Following the election, Netanyahu’s Likud party issued a statement, shared by Netanyahu, alleging that the elections were "stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism and the elimination of the Jewish state through serious criminal offences." However, The Times of Israel reported that police and the Central Elections Committee have already dismissed these claims. Results indicate Likud is on course for 26 seats, making it the largest party with 20.65 percent of the vote, but Netanyahu's bloc falls eight seats short of a majority.

Gadi Eisenkot, Yashar Party: In a September interview with The Jerusalem Post, Eisenkot dismissed the necessity of forming a coalition with Arab parties, stating, "I believe the majority we receive will be much larger than what the polls currently show," and added, "I do not see an Arab party that accepts my principles." He also conveyed his "inner feeling is that I now have the ability to defeat Netanyahu." On election day, Eisenkot urged Israelis to remove "the worst government Israel has known," acknowledging the critical nature of the race by saying, "We are on perhaps the most critical day since the founding of the state." On Wednesday, Eisenkot informed his supporters that the Israeli public "voted against" Netanyahu and pledged "to ensure that the people’s decision is translated into a Zionist government." Yashar is projected to win 21 seats, representing 16.16 percent of the vote, but his bloc is 13 seats short of a majority, making it impossible to reach 61 without Arab-led parties.

Naftali Bennett, Together Party: In February, Bennett stated his support for his 2021 decision to govern with Ra’am but indicated he would not repeat it, saying, "We will establish a unity government under my leadership… We are going to win, and we are going to form it," as reported by Israel National News. On election day, Bennett told supporters in Tel Aviv, "Netanyahu has lost, and the October 7 government is going home." Post-election, he posted on X, encouraging Israelis to "lift your heads" and vowing to do everything "to establish a Zionist Alliance of Servants government." The Together Party is expected to secure 12 seats, with 9.07 percent of the vote, placing it narrowly behind the Joint List.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Otzma Yehudit: During his election campaign in August, Ben-Gvir expressed extreme views, stating that some Palestinians in Gaza "are not worthy of life. They shouldn’t live. They’re not even people," and called for killing "30 to 40" people in Gaza nightly. On election day, he urged supporters at the entrance to the Arab city of Kafr Qasim, "If you want this country to stay Jewish and Zionist, if you don’t want it to be in the hands of (Israeli Knesset members) Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi, go out and vote." Otzma Yehudit is projected to win seven seats, with 5.58 percent of the vote, less than half of his target of 15.

Bezalel Smotrich, Religious Zionism-Zehut: In August, Smotrich promised an expansion of his settlement "revolution" with a program for the "Judaization of the Negev and the Galilee" at the expense of Palestinians. On election day, he warned on Facebook about high turnout in communities of Palestinian citizens of Israel, claiming that a failure to mobilize right-wing voters could allow "terror supporters" into government. That night, he told supporters, "Jewish settlements will be established in Gaza." Religious Zionism is on course for six seats, with 4.78 percent of the vote.

Yousef Jabareen, Joint List: In August, Jabareen stated that only "a large and strong Joint List will work with all its might to send the Netanyahu/Ben-Gvir/Smotrich government home," according to The Jerusalem Post. In a video statement on election day and night, he asserted that Netanyahu knew "we can put an end to his bloody reign." Post-election, he wrote on X that his party was ready for the "ousting of the Netanyahu government," which he termed one of "bloodshed." He added, "Against a politics of supremacy, racism, and exclusion, we offer a completely different alternative. The change comes through Jewish-Arab partnership, a true and equal partnership." The Joint List is projected to win 12 seats, with 9.14 percent of the vote, making it the third-largest party by vote share.

Mansour Abbas, Ra’am: Abbas set a goal of at least seven seats for Ra’am in July, arguing this would be enough to provide the balance of power in a "government of change." On election day, he responded to Netanyahu's posts about Palestinian citizens of Israel, stating in a video that Netanyahu was "lying and inciting against Ra’am, using it as a scare tactic to mobilise right-wing voters and drive them to the polls." Ra’am is on course for eight seats, with 6.09 percent, surpassing his target.

Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beiteinu: On October 15, Lieberman claimed, "We will reach 61 seats or more for the change bloc." On election day, he urged patience, stating on Friday, "we’ll be able to talk about a much better and more optimistic picture." Yisrael Beiteinu is projected to win seven seats, with 5.93 percent of the vote.

Yair Lapid, Together: In September, Lapid posted a statement asserting, "Netanyahu ignored every warning before October 7, and now, 28 days before the election, he’s suddenly busy fear-mongering." On election day, he declared victory, stating, "The Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat." Together, which he co-leads with Bennett, is on course for 12 seats, with 9.07 percent of the vote.