Global Strategist Parag Khanna Declares World Already Engulfed in World War III

Global strategist Parag Khanna posits that the world is presently embroiled in a third world war, asserting there's no need to await historical designation. He observes that while direct combat may be localized, the global economic and trade systems exhibit characteristics of a war zone. Mr. Khanna shared his perspective, stating, "I actually think we are in World War III," and expressed a desire not to wait until 2065 for historians to confirm this period as such. He argues the conflict qualifies as a world war due to the direct or indirect involvement of all major global powers and the interconnected nature of the conflict theaters. These connections extend beyond battlefields, encompassing weapons transfers, troop movements, and the flows of essential commodities like oil, gas, and gold, citing the deployment of North Korean soldiers alongside Russian forces against Ukraine as an example.

Khanna noted that for the UAE, the current crisis differs from previous ones. For five decades, the nation has navigated regional upheavals, from the Lebanese civil war to the Arab Spring, often benefiting from them. "This is the first time the country’s being directly … hit and targeted, and that is what’s different," he stated. However, he does not foresee this as a turning point, predicting that the UAE will ultimately demonstrate its resilience and prevail, as it has in past episodes.

Regarding the US presence in the Gulf, Khanna anticipates a reduced footprint. He indicated that damaged bases would not be rebuilt, suggesting that the US defense budget will be reallocated. However, he cautioned against interpreting this as a complete withdrawal, emphasizing that US presence will persist, albeit manifested through cyber capabilities, missile defenses, and drones rather than traditional bases and aircraft carriers. "I don’t believe that one can take a binary view on presence as if the US presence is going to disappear. It’s not. It’s still going to be very prominent," he asserted.

Khanna highlighted a significant shift eastward in global dynamics, with Gulf trade and investment ties to East Asia deepening considerably since the commodity boom of the 2000s, a trend he deems largely irreversible. He suggested that future historical accounts, looking back from 2050, will emphasize the "Asianisation of Asia" rather than solely the rise of China in the early 21st century. This geopolitical realignment, he believes, will impact the US dollar, which he described as a product of inertia, expecting its global role to diminish as energy trade is repriced and central banks diversify their reserves.

Recalling a disagreement over the title of his book, 'The Future Is Asian,' Khanna quipped, "I have one quibble with this title... And the quibble is that the present is already Asian. Asia is not waiting for western intellectuals or media to grasp this reality."

Looking ahead to 2027, Khanna identified unresolved border disputes as a primary risk, describing dormant conflicts as prone to flaring up at inconvenient times. He proposed a regional security forum involving key players such as Israel, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and GCC countries. This forum, he suggested, should operate independently of US foreign policy and without Chinese influence, drawing a parallel to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) model. Khanna, residing in Singapore, views Abu Dhabi as a suitable host for such a forum, likening it to the "Singapore of the Gulf region and the whole West Asian region," and considering it a de facto capital for the entire region.