US Midterms 2026: Farmers Grapple with Rising Costs and Political Uncertainty

Hallie Shoffner, an Arkansas Democrat, abandoned farming last year to challenge her Republican opponent, citing escalating costs. Paul McKinney, a farmer in northeast Arkansas, reminisces about his son playing in the vast fields of their family farm, where rice has been a staple for four generations. However, the family is shifting focus to less expensive soya crops for the upcoming planting season. Like many farmers across the United States, McKinney is making difficult decisions due to soaring fuel and fertilizer prices, exacerbated by the war on Iran. This week, farmers also face critical choices at the ballot box. With the midterm elections approaching, Democrats anticipate gains as voters respond to the high cost of living by changing party allegiance or abstaining from voting. Political observers are closely monitoring rural areas, with Texas and Kansas potentially electing Democrats to the Senate for the first time in decades. In the House of Representatives, two predominantly rural districts, Wisconsin's Third and North Carolina's First, could prove decisive in determining Democratic control.

Despite these potential shifts, many rural areas, including Arkansas, remain staunchly Republican. This presents a significant challenge for Democrat Hallie Shoffner, who left her farming career to contest Republican Senator Tom Cotton, with rising costs forming the core of her campaign. Ryan Loy, an extension economist for the University of Arkansas’ Division of Agriculture, noted that high input costs were already pressuring farmers even before the US-Israel war on Iran. He attributed these rising costs and market disruptions to factors such as the trade war with China initiated in 2018, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and disruptions linked to the 2025 tariffs. A severe drought across the US heartland, worsened by climate change, has further intensified the strain.

Farmers nationwide are adapting. In Arkansas, many have opted for soya over rice due to its lower input requirements, potentially allowing them to break even or minimize losses. Consequently, Arkansas, typically a leading rice producer, now has its lowest rice acreage since the 1970s. Many farmers had hoped for economic recovery in 2026 to resume rice cultivation, but the war on Iran significantly altered this outlook. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused fertilizer prices to surge just as farmers were applying them during the spring planting season. Loy's analysis of a sample budget for Arkansas row crop farmers revealed that urea fertilizer costs peaked at approximately 39 percent above budgeted amounts. Diesel costs averaged about 72 percent higher than budgeted across the planting, growing, and harvesting seasons. These increases represent a substantial economic burden, estimated at an additional $343 million for Arkansas alone.

While President Donald Trump announced an $8 billion fuel relief program for farmers, following $12 billion in tariff-related aid in 2025, this aid may not fully cover the increased expenses. McKinney, a member of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, welcomed the announcement but expressed a desire for long-term solutions to ensure farm viability. Farm bankruptcies for the first three quarters of 2026 saw a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year and a 73 percent rise compared to 2024, according to the University of Arkansas’ National Agricultural Law Center.

McKinney's son and nephew, who assist with the 24,000-acre farm, express concerns about the future sustainability of farming as a livelihood. Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer from Arkansas, made the difficult decision to close her family's 2,000-acre farm last year due to escalating costs, reduced crop prices, and trade uncertainties. This decision motivated her Senate campaign, where she aims to end the war on Iran, establish predictable trade policies, invest in local processing, and advocate for a strong Farm Bill to support farmers and rural economies. She believes that for rural communities to thrive, those who produce the nation's food must be able to earn a living.

Despite the economic hardships, political scientist Michael Shepherd from the University of Michigan suggests that economic pain may not significantly alter voting patterns among farmers, many of whom remain loyal Republicans. He notes that committed voters often interpret economic changes through a partisan lens, making their voting choices less responsive to agricultural economic fluctuations. However, recent polls indicate potential shifts, with a Farm Journal poll showing a notable percentage of Republican-leaning farmers considering their vote, and Purdue University polling revealing a majority of surveyed farmers believe the country is on the wrong track.

Shepherd also points out the significant financial advantage held by incumbent Senator Tom Cotton, whose campaign is heavily funded by interest groups like AIPAC and leaders from companies such as Anthropic and Palantir. This disparity in resources could heavily influence the outcome of races. Furthermore, farmers constitute a diminishing portion of the rural electorate, with their influence now stemming more from organizing capabilities than sheer numbers. Nevertheless, campaigns like Shoffner's, even if unsuccessful, can signal future competitiveness and potentially aid down-ballot Democratic candidates. In Arkansas's second congressional district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is backing Chris Jones in a challenging race. Shepherd anticipates that the upcoming elections could see a substantial shift away from the president's party.