Israel Election Results: Coalition Talks Begin Amidst Political Uncertainty

Following the completion of vote counting in Israel's general election, political leaders have commenced discussions on forming a new government. The results indicate that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his primary opponent, Gadi Eisenkot, have secured a clear mandate for power.

Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party emerged as the largest single party, capturing 20.5 percent of the vote. This outcome, exceeding expectations, offers the longest-serving leader in Israel's history a chance to remain in office despite facing numerous domestic and international controversies. However, the combined 53 seats won by Likud and its current right-wing coalition partners fall short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party secured the second-highest number of votes with 16.1 percent. Parties aligned with the former army general collectively won 48 seats, while Arab parties achieved a record performance, securing the remaining 19 seats.

The final day of vote tabulation was marked by allegations of election interference. Prime Minister Netanyahu accused Arab parties of fraud and bribery, claims that were vehemently rejected by the parties as "baseless allegations." They, in turn, accused Likud of undermining the legitimacy of the vote. Qatar also issued a statement denying any involvement.

The inconclusive election results point towards potentially lengthy negotiations, lasting weeks or even months, to establish a governing coalition. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has urged all parties to engage in talks with an "open mind" and to avoid the possibility of a second election.

Within the Netanyahu bloc, Likud secured 27 seats, while parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich won seven and six seats, respectively. Two ultra-Orthodox parties accounted for the remaining seats in this bloc. The potential Eisenkot bloc comprises 48 seats, with Yashar leading with 21 seats. An alliance including former prime ministers Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett garnered 12 seats. The anti-Netanyahu coalition also includes the center-left Democrats with eight seats and the Yisrael Bentenu party with seven seats. The Arab Joint List won 11 seats, and the Ra'am party secured eight seats.

Forming a majority of 61 seats appears challenging. Leaders of Arab parties have expressed willingness to support an anti-Netanyahu government, which could potentially provide Mr. Eisenkot with the necessary majority. However, such reliance on Arab support is a politically sensitive issue in Israel, and some members of Mr. Eisenkot's bloc had previously ruled out this option during the campaign. An alternative scenario involves Mr. Netanyahu attempting to persuade members of the Eisenkot camp, particularly those on the right of the political spectrum, to switch allegiances.

Gadi Eisenkot, speaking on Thursday, pledged to proceed "calmly and with determination" but did not elaborate on his strategy for forming a government. He emphasized that the swearing-in of the new Knesset would not be delayed, despite ongoing investigations into the vote.

As cross-party discussions commenced, Mr. Eisenkot met with Yair Golan, leader of the center-left Democrats. He also held discussions with Yair Lapid and Mansour Abbas, a leader of one of the Arab parties. Yair Golan stated, "Israeli citizens fired Netanyahu. We will do everything to establish a government of change and rescue – because that is the will of the voter."

Although vote counting concluded on Thursday, the results await final ratification. Following ratification, President Herzog will be tasked with appointing a Knesset member to lead coalition formation. If neither Mr. Netanyahu nor Mr. Eisenkot can assemble a 61-seat majority, a new election could be held early next year.

Likud has called for an investigation by Israeli security services into the fraud allegations. Critics suggest that by intensifying attacks on Arab parties, Mr. Netanyahu might be attempting to prevent Mr. Eisenkot from forming a minority government with Arab support, which could lead to his removal from power.

Voter turnout saw a significant increase in Arab communities, with some individuals who had previously abstained from voting participating for the first time. Israeli broadcasters reported turnout potentially reaching 80 percent in these communities. Despite the political challenges, Mr. Netanyahu's resilience is notable, having navigated numerous scandals and political crises to govern Israel for all but 18 months since 2009. He is expected to leverage the interim period, potentially by initiating further actions against Iran. The United States is also reportedly considering new strikes following its midterm elections.