US Midterm Elections Explained: Why Control of Congress and the President's Agenda Are at Stake

American voters are preparing to cast their ballots in the upcoming midterm elections, a crucial vote that will determine the composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate, alongside state-level positions such as governors. An estimated 100 million citizens are expected to participate in the voting on November 3. The political landscape is buzzing with activity, marked by billions of dollars invested in advertising, particularly in key battleground states like Texas, Ohio, and Michigan.

What are the Midterms?

Held midway through a president's four-year term, midterm elections do not feature the president on the ballot. However, they serve as a significant barometer of the president's performance and public approval. The results will dictate which party, either the Republicans or the Democrats, will hold sway in Congress. This outcome will directly influence the president's ability to enact their agenda during the latter half of their term, as the president's party historically tends to lose seats in Congress during these elections.

With President Donald Trump's approval rating hovering in the mid-30s, and public concerns mounting over the rising cost of living and the ongoing Iran war, the number of seats the Republican party secures will offer a clear indication of voter sentiment regarding his presidency. While Mr. Trump is not a candidate, the election's results will reflect the nation's mood.

House of Representatives

The stakes are particularly high for the House of Representatives, where Democrats are striving to regain majority control. The House consists of 435 voting members, with representation for each state based on its population. Representatives serve two-year terms. Currently, the Republicans hold a narrow majority of 218-214, with two vacancies and one independent member who aligns with conservatives. All 435 seats are up for election in this midterm cycle, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure control.

Senate

The Senate, comprising 100 seats with two senators per state elected to six-year terms, is also a focal point. Republicans currently maintain a 53-47 majority, with 35 seats up for re-election. For Democrats to gain control of the Senate, they must win four additional seats.

Vulnerable Seats and Key Races

Control of the Senate could hinge on as few as ten competitive races, including contests in Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia. In Michigan, the race between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers is drawing significant attention. Should Mr. El-Sayed win, he would become the first Muslim-American senator. Both Mr. Rogers and President Trump have actively sought to link Mr. El-Sayed to controversial groups.

In Alaska, Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Mary Peltola. The state has been impacted by rising diesel prices, and the election has seen a peculiar situation with another individual named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot. While the incumbent senator is clearly identified as a Republican, the Justice Department has indicated it may seek to block the certification of results if the senator loses.

Among the closely watched House races is the re-election bid of Republican Representative Mike Lawler in a New York district previously won by Democrat Kamala Harris in her 2024 presidential campaign. An open seat in a Nebraska swing district is also critical, with farmers and truck drivers facing increased fuel costs due to the US involvement in the Iran war. Democrats are also targeting seats in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Implications for the Middle East

Democrats are leveraging Republican support for the Iran war, connecting it to elevated fuel prices and what they characterize as President Trump's lack of a clear strategy to end the conflict. This message resonates with voters prioritizing affordability, as an AP-Norc poll revealed that approximately 80% of registered voters want the incoming Congress to focus on reducing the cost of living, especially fuel prices, and ending the war in Iran.

The midterms also present a challenge for progressive Democrats, many of whom advocate for ending military aid to Israel following the Gaza war. While support for Israel has traditionally been bipartisan, a growing faction of non-establishment Democrats is questioning this long-standing alliance. Progressive candidates have successfully secured nominations over pro-Israel Democrats in states such as Minnesota, Michigan, and Florida.