US Midterms 2026: Democrats Lead Polls as Trump Rallies Continue Amidst Record Early Voting

With just three days remaining until the US midterm elections, Democrats are currently ahead in national polls as a significant number of Americans participate in early voting. President Donald Trump has confirmed he will proceed with his scheduled campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa, as both major parties intensify their final efforts before Election Day on Tuesday.

US Midterm Polls Overview

According to the latest national congressional ballot average from RealClearPolling, Democrats hold an 8.2 percentage point lead over Republicans, with 51.4 percent support compared to 43.2 percent. A separate survey by The Economist/YouGov, released on Thursday, indicated that 44 percent of registered voters anticipate a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, while 31 percent expect Republicans to maintain control. The projections for the Senate were closer, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, commented to Al Jazeera that the strong Democratic lead in national House polling suggests a likely shift in control. "A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats," Kondik stated. "However, that does not mean the Senate is going to flip – it certainly could, but it is much more up in the air."

Record Early Voting Numbers

An analysis by the Associated Press on Friday revealed that over 43 million Americans had already cast their ballots through early in-person voting or mail-in ballots, with five days left until Election Day. This figure is nearly 10 million higher than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with notable increases observed in states featuring competitive Senate races.

In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, a 50 percent increase from the 4.2 million recorded at the same time in 2022. Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle reported from Houston on Friday that voters were still arriving at polling stations as the state’s early voting period neared its end.

Georgia saw over 2.5 million ballots cast by Friday morning, surpassing the 2.3 million from the early voting period in 2022, according to Al Jazeera’s Matthew Torres. Torres observed long queues at an Atlanta polling station and a notable increase in participation among young voters. "We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation," one young voter shared with Al Jazeera. Another attributed the heightened interest in the election to social media's influence: "Definitely social media. Social media and the media has put voting in the limelight."

Democratic political strategist Celinda Lake noted that many voters are seeking change. "You got a lot of voters who say, ‘I’m going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something,'" she remarked.

Early voting also saw increases of over 30 percent compared to the same period in 2022 in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas, according to the AP analysis. However, these early turnout figures do not indicate voter preferences or predict final outcomes.

Campaign Trail Developments

President Trump reversed his earlier decision to cancel two weekend rallies in Kansas and Iowa, with the White House confirming both events would proceed on Sunday. The rallies had been called off on Thursday, with the White House initially stating Trump would participate in nearly 20 telephone campaign events instead. However, less than 24 hours later, the rallies were reinstated.

Al Jazeera’s Tanya Nouri reported that Trump’s campaign team views his in-person appearances as crucial for mobilizing Republican voters. "He is energised to go back and rally in person on Sunday," Nouri said, citing campaign sources. She added that Trump's team believes his rallies have a significant impact on energizing Republican supporters, particularly in states with closely contested Senate races.

Trump also campaigned in Florida on Friday, a state where Republicans are defending key Senate and gubernatorial seats. "You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down," Trump told the rally attendees.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico were focusing their final campaign efforts in Houston, as reported by Al Jazeera’s Lavelle. Paxton canceled an event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, the most populous county in Texas, as early voting concluded.

On Friday, former President Bill Clinton campaigned for the Democratic Party in Mississippi, urging citizens to vote. "I can’t tell you how many people I care for that have lost in Mississippi because of those who did not vote at all," Clinton stated.

Weekend Campaign Schedules

President Trump is scheduled to hold back-to-back rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. In Iowa, he is expected to endorse Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, before traveling to Kansas to campaign with Senator Roger Marshall. Recent polls indicate competitive Senate races in traditionally Republican states.

In Kansas, Marshall faces a challenging race against his Democratic challenger, megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton. An Emerson College poll suggests Hamilton leads with 49 percent support, while Marshall has 45 percent.

Democrats are also making their final appeals to voters. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is set to join Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton at a campaign event. Democrat Senate nominee for Alaska, Mary Peltola, is also expected to attend a rally in Bethel, Alaska. Alaska’s Senate race is identified as one of seven key toss-up contests that could determine whether Republicans retain their majority in the Senate.

The Alaska race has been complicated by a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Trump has accused Democrats of orchestrating the recruitment of an independent candidate with the same name as the Republican senator to mislead voters and divert support. The Department of Justice has initiated legal action regarding this dispute, while Peltola has denied any involvement in the alleged recruitment effort. Separately, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is expected to campaign with House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend.