Russian Satellites Allegedly Aiding Houthis in Strikes on Saudi Arabia, Fueling Global Energy Concerns

An investigation suggests that Russian satellites are providing crucial intelligence to the Iran-aligned Houthis, enabling them to target Saudi Arabia's military and energy infrastructure. This development exacerbates existing global energy market instability, particularly amid the ongoing US focus on Iran.

The conflict between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Houthis has been ongoing since July, with a significant escalation in September when the rebels gained full control of Yemen's Red Sea coast. Previously, the Houthis executed a precise strike on pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's vital East-West pipeline. A probe by the Geneva-based firm AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence indicated that Russian satellites had been monitoring the region for days prior to this attack, gathering intelligence on the pipeline.

The investigation, detailed by The Associated Press, analyzed 40 Houthi missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia between July 1 and October 19. In each instance, Russian government and military satellites were observed observing the targeted areas both before and after the strikes.

Nawaf Obaid, founder of AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence, stated that by reconstructing Russia's military reconnaissance capabilities, his team identified specific satellites, calculated their orbits, and correlated their activity with military events across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and Yemen. The identified satellites include Russia's Bars-M, Persona, Lotos-S1, Pion-NKS, Kondor-FKA, and the EKS/Tundra constellation.

Obaid confirmed that Russian military geospatial and signals intelligence has bolstered the Iranian-led intelligence framework supporting Houthi operations. He cited the Houthi offensive along Yemen's western coast towards Bab al-Mandeb as a prime example, where Russian-derived intelligence, Iranian command integration, and local human intelligence contributed to the rapid breakdown of opposing Yemeni forces' coordination.

He further elaborated that this intelligence relationship is pertinent to Houthi missile and drone targeting against Saudi Arabia, as Russian military reconnaissance offers advanced capabilities beyond standard commercial satellite imagery, especially when integrated with optical, radar, and electronic intelligence. The September attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, targeting three pumping stations (PS8 at Afif, PS9 at Al-Dhekra, and PS11 at Al-Mesba’ah) within a critical section of the pipeline, exemplified the sophistication of the targeting, reflecting an understanding of the infrastructure's vulnerabilities and strategic importance.

Military analyst Elijah Magnier commented that AURORA's findings might not present the complete picture, noting that the inability to intercept intelligence transmissions does not definitively establish who accessed the Russian satellite information or whether Russia deliberately shared it. He outlined four potential scenarios: direct sharing by Russia, acquisition through commercial channels (though Russian military reconnaissance imagery is generally not public), or acquisition via a third-party intermediary.

Obaid stressed the importance of distinguishing between a broader Russian-supported intelligence architecture and direct evidence of a specific Russian satellite providing targeting data for an individual Houthi strike, stating that their assessment establishes the wider intelligence relationship, while attribution for specific launches requires further corroboration.

Three officials, including one from Saudi Arabia, a high-ranking Houthi official, and a private intelligence analyst, confirmed to The Associated Press that the Houthis and other Iranian allies have benefited from Russian and Chinese intelligence capabilities. Saudi Arabia's deputy minister for public diplomacy, Rayed Krimly, had previously stated that the Houthis receive intelligence from Russia and China, and that these matters are regularly discussed with both countries.

Russian officials have not yet commented on AURORAH's findings. However, technological and military ties between Russia and Iran have strengthened in recent years, encompassing joint strategic agreements, space cooperation, and defense technology exchange.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst on Yemen at the International Crisis Group, highlighted that Russian support to Iran's allies like the Houthis would signify a significant shift in the Yemeni conflict, moving it beyond domestic issues to become intertwined with wider regional dynamics. He noted that Russia's involvement, providing intelligence support and sophisticated weaponry from which the Houthis benefit, expands the external support network beyond Iran alone.

Nagi also pointed out the implications of Russian support for both the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia, noting Russia's diplomatic positions at the United Nations Security Council that oppose stronger international action against the Houthis, indicating a broader expansion of Russian engagement.

The Houthis have launched attacks across various locations in Saudi Arabia, including the eastern and western coasts, the capital, and southern regions. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed attacks on vital commercial and military infrastructure, such as the Ras Tanura oil refinery, an Aramco facility in Abqaiq, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, the Rabigh oil refinery, and a Saudi military headquarters in Najran. Independent corroboration for these specific claims is lacking, though Houthi attacks have resulted in casualties and significant disruptions, including the temporary closure of King Khalid International Airport following a strike that killed at least 12 people and injured 300.

Since seizing Sanaa in 2014, the Houthis have gained access to significant Yemeni military arsenals and formed an alliance with forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Analysts suggest their military capabilities have evolved through access to state arsenals, external backing from Iran, and scouring international black markets for components. Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, noted that the Houthis have developed robust capabilities, enabling them to conduct long-range missile attacks, making targets in Saudi Arabia relatively accessible.

During a truce in 2022, which lasted until earlier this year, the Houthis reportedly used the period to strengthen their military position. Their recent advances and setbacks inflicted on Yemeni government forces demonstrate considerable military readiness. However, Magnier noted that the Houthis' sophisticated missile technology remains dependent on foreign expertise, with substantial backing, training, and weaponry provided by Iran, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Hezbollah and Iraqi armed groups have also contributed military training and operational experience.

The Saudi-led coalition has responded with air attacks and military operations against Houthi targets in Yemen. Recent reports include the interception of a drone targeting Mecca, a missile aimed at western Saudi Arabia, and ballistic missiles fired towards the kingdom's eastern region and the capital, Riyadh. The coalition has also reported destroying ballistic missile launchers, tunnels used for storing missiles, missile depots, and targeting Houthi fortifications and equipment along front lines.

Analysts suggest Saudi Arabia's struggles to contain the Houthis stem from a reliance on air bombing without sufficient ground force motivation and sacrifice. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government camp is described as fragmented, poorly organized, and militarily unprepared. Despite significant spending on weapons, the Saudis have reportedly failed to effectively utilize their military capabilities, while the Houthis have learned from Iranian strategists and militias that battled US troops in Iraq. Some analysts predict Riyadh might eventually withdraw from the conflict zone, similar to the UAE's approach.