Indian Election Mercenaries: Shadow Campaigns Go Global, Influencing Votes from Kenya to the US

Indian election consultants are increasingly offering their services, including the use of social media bots, to political campaigns worldwide, aiming to influence voting patterns. This trend has been observed from Kenya and Suriname to the United States.

In Ahmedabad, India, a 22-year-old digital content creator named Rajan Kumar worked on posters and videos for William Ruto’s 2022 presidential campaign in Kenya. Although his content was not officially endorsed by Ruto's campaign, the 50 social media posts he created daily for $7 were disseminated through covert social media accounts. These accounts were designed to mimic independent messaging while supporting Ruto. Kumar explained that his work involved editing speeches of opposing leaders to distort their statements or creating posters with fabricated claims to boost Ruto's perceived popularity.

"If there’s a woman politician, we simply link her to someone to damage her reputation. It’s one of the easiest ways to discredit," Kumar told Al Jazeera, adding that "all controversial content" is funneled to these hidden pages for "extensive distribution." Ruto ultimately won the 2022 election, becoming Kenya’s fifth president.

Now, as the United States approaches its midterm elections, researchers have identified Indian social media bots and accounts posting videos in support of specific campaigns. The New York Times first reported on such posts backing Democratic politician Haley Stevens in Michigan's August 4 Senate primary, which she lost to Abdul El-Sayed, the party's candidate for the midterm election.

The US is just the latest arena for these electoral tactics, with Indian social media operatives having previously engaged in shadow campaigns across South America and Africa. Political consultants in India, speaking anonymously, indicated that these operations lack any ethical boundaries or red lines. "We are manipulating elections; there is no other way to say it," stated Tushar Giri, a political consultant based in New Delhi. "The concept of electoral democracy is so overrated. There is no free will for voters. Everything is manipulated.".

Political consultancies, which advise campaigns on public support and election strategies, have a history dating back to the 1930s in the US. The proliferation of social media has enabled these tactics to shift online, manipulating voters through targeted advertising on platforms like Meta and Google. Previous investigations have suggested similar tactics were employed by Russia to influence US elections.

Dissemination strategies for content too sensitive for official accounts vary. They include political consultancies taking over existing shadow pages, creating new ones, rebranding existing pages, or utilizing pages available for hire. An Al Jazeera investigation prior to India's 2024 general election uncovered a network of such pages on Meta and Google platforms being offered for sale, circumventing policies against the misuse of targeted advertising.

Antibot4Navalny, a group monitoring disinformation, reported finding at least 28 accounts on X (formerly Twitter) sharing videos supporting Stevens's campaign, which collectively garnered over seven million views. Al Jazeera's review indicated that at least 15 of these accounts were operating from India. Researchers at Clemson University's Media Forensic Hub also identified similar tactics used by Indian accounts to support Stevens against El-Sayed.

Amogh Dhar Sharma, author of "Backstage of Democracy," noted that politicians prefer to keep public focus on visible issues, while "real power is being wielded, completely hidden from the public eye." He highlighted the ethical concerns surrounding these "hidden sources of power" in a democracy.

In India, these political consultancies are integral to election campaigns and market their success to foreign campaigns. "We have a proven track record of delivering desired results in a complicated electoral democracy like India, which now attracts foreign campaigns too," said Giri.

Meta's rules prohibit the buying or selling of accounts and operating under false identities. While Meta and Google require political advertisers to verify their identities and disclose funding, Indian consultants claim these rules are frequently bypassed. "These platforms have long pages of such rules, but when you read between the lines, there are several loopholes one can exploit," Giri commented.

Consultancies use premium VPNs to overcome geographical restrictions, sometimes simply by changing an account's country of origin. Giri mentioned a past negotiation with a presidential campaign in Suriname that did not materialize. Sharma's research indicated Indian consultancies have also worked in Australia and Germany, as well as in neighboring countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Kumar, who worked for Ruto's campaign, was paid approximately $7 daily under a monthly contract, with demands for up to 100 creatives some days, coordinated via Telegram. He emphasized that content creators like him are unaware of the full supply chain and the identities of senior campaign officials. "One always needs to be careful and hide footprints nonetheless," he stated, describing practices like deleting chats and destroying SIM cards.

The risks involved are significant. Two Indian political consultants, Zulfiqar Ahmad Khan and Mohamed Zaid Kidwai, who worked for Ruto's campaign, disappeared in Nairobi in July 2022 and were found dead in October, allegedly abducted by an elite police unit. Ruto later disbanded the unit, and while 15 officers were accused of murder, charges were terminated in August 2026 after the prosecution requested the case's discontinuation.

The clandestine nature of this work extends to financial transactions. "Black money is a pillar of political consultation," one anonymous consultant revealed, citing the use of front companies abroad for payments and informal hawala networks for cross-border transfers. Export-focused businesses in Delhi's Chandni Chowk market are identified as a hub for such activities. One consultant recounted a transaction where payments were collected in cash using a specific banknote serial number as a code.

Giri described India as a "big wholesale market to run these shadow political campaigns," comparing it to China's role in manufacturing. "It is like you buy toys from China; similarly, you can manipulate elections anywhere in the world at the cheapest cost in India." Sharma likened this to the global outsourcing industry, where India became a hub for business-process outsourcing, now extending to political consultancy services that offer "plausible deniability" due to the physical distance between operatives and campaigns.

"What are the limits? If one agency can execute filthy tricks to manipulate a voter — and think beyond the political party’s own imagination — they are rewarded accordingly," Giri stated. "The dirtier you can get, the more money and opportunities there are."