Israel's President Herzog Faces Crucial Decision to End Election Deadlock

As Shabbat concludes on Saturday evening, Israel prepares for a pivotal moment in its quest to form a new government following inconclusive elections last month. President Isaac Herzog is tasked with a significant and potentially contentious role: selecting the politician who will first attempt to assemble a government. Current expectations point to Gadi Eisenkot, who garnered the most recommendations (67 out of 120 Knesset members) after a week of consultations hosted by the President with various factions of the new Knesset. However, Mr. Eisenkot's appointment is not guaranteed, as President Herzog possesses discretion, making this one of the most consequential decisions an Israeli president will ever face, far exceeding routine duties like hosting foreign dignitaries or attending ceremonies. President Herzog is slated to announce his decision on Sunday, a critical date that could profoundly shape Israel's future. While Mr. Eisenkot is the favored candidate to receive the first opportunity, his subsequent actions and the reactions of his strong opponents could lead to historic outcomes. There is a universal acknowledgment in Israel regarding the high stakes involved.

Within the opposition, there is a sense of urgency to form an "emergency" coalition to begin rebuilding Israel's international image, a task made more critical by the recent US midterm election results. To achieve a majority, the opposition may need to compromise on key campaign promises, particularly concerning potential deals with the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party. Such agreements would likely address the controversial exemptions from military service and significant government financial benefits afforded to this community, which many opposition leaders had pledged to eliminate.

An even more contentious path involves potential alliances with Arab parties. Despite the significant representation of Arab parties (19 seats) following a historic voter turnout, some within Israel's political landscape are quick to label their politicians as untrustworthy or even traitors, rather than partners in the region's sole democracy. If Mr. Eisenkot were to pursue this route, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies might leverage it to bolster their narrative that the elections were manipulated through a foreign-funded campaign to boost Arab voter turnout – an allegation reportedly supported by individuals within Israel's security system, according to the opposition. Israel's Central Elections Committee has consistently affirmed the validity of the election results, despite claims from Mr. Netanyahu's camp.

These complex scenarios are likely occupying President Herzog's thoughts during Shabbat. His stated aim is to foster unity after four years of deep division under the Netanyahu coalition. The current process, which could extend for months, might bring the opposition together. On Sunday, President Herzog will designate a Knesset member to form a government, who will then have 28 days to secure a coalition. If Mr. Eisenkot is chosen, he will face a demanding month of negotiations, while Prime Minister Netanyahu, a seasoned politician, is expected to employ his considerable skills to disrupt the process. The public can anticipate a continuous stream of media updates on progress and setbacks, accompanied by increasingly vocal criticism from the right-wing opposition. Mr. Netanyahu continues to serve as caretaker prime minister until a new government is established, and concerns exist that he might attempt to engineer a security crisis, particularly given the ongoing high tensions with Iran.

Should the initial 28-day period conclude without a successful coalition, President Herzog has the option to grant a 14-day extension. Alternatively, he can empower a different candidate to attempt government formation for another 28-day period, without the possibility of further extension. This scenario could present an opportunity for Mr. Netanyahu. The President also retains the authority to declare that no candidate can form a government, leading to new elections. He may also opt for further consultations with Knesset factions. A minimum of 61 Knesset members can nominate a candidate to form a government, who would then have 21 days to succeed, followed by a 14-day period if initial attempts fail. If all these efforts prove unsuccessful, Israel would face new elections.