US Open Semi-Final Breakdown: Zverev and Shelton Eye Glory as Pegula Seeks Sabalenka Upset

The US Open reaches its thrilling climax in New York this weekend as the final four competitors in both the men's and women's singles are confirmed. The men's tournament has proven highly unpredictable, largely due to the absence of world No 1 Jannik Sinner and fitness struggles for Carlos Alcaraz, who exited in the quarter-finals. Alexander Zverev now enters as the frontrunner, though he must first get past Karen Khachanov before potentially facing an American opponent and the partisan home crowd in the final.

Meanwhile, the women's draw features elite competition after the top four seeds all reached the semi-finals at a Grand Slam for the first time since Wimbledon in 2009.

Women's Singles

Aryna Sabalenka (1) v Jessica Pegula (3)
This opening semi-final is a familiar New York matchup, echoing the 2024 final and a semi-final from the previous year, both of which were won by Aryna Sabalenka. Since then, Jessica Pegula has claimed victories in two of their three encounters—on grass in Berlin and hard courts in Wuhan—while Sabalenka triumphed at the WTA Finals in Riyadh. Pegula is known for her tactical problem-solving and will have reviewed her previous New York meetings, especially given that Sabalenka looked vulnerable during her hard-fought win against Linda Noskova on Tuesday. Pegula is tipped to pull off a mini upset in what promises to be a brutal, three-set battle.
Pick: Pegula in three

Elena Rybakina (2) v Coco Gauff (4)
Coco Gauff is a fierce competitor who excels at harnessing the energy of the home crowd, ensuring she can never be completely counted out. However, looking at pure form, it would be a minor shock if she defeated Elena Rybakina, who has emerged as the title favourite and is set to claim the world No 1 spot next week. The 27-year-old has been a dominant hard-court force while her serve remains lethal, overpowering both Naomi Osaka in the last 16 and a resilient Zheng Qinwen in the quarter-finals.
Pick: Rybakina in two

Men's Singles

Alexander Zverev (1) v Karen Khachanov
Alexander Zverev has advanced to the semi-finals at all four majors this season and stands as the only previous Grand Slam champion remaining in the men's bracket. The French Open champion and Wimbledon runner-up would likely consider it a missed opportunity if he fails to capture a second major title from this advantageous position. Zverev holds a 6-3 head-to-head advantage and has won four of his last five matches against Karen Khachanov.
Pick: Zverev in four

Frances Tiafoe (11) v Ben Shelton (8)
This all-American clash guarantees a home-country finalist to the delight of the US spectators. Both players are contesting the third major semi-final of their careers, with Frances Tiafoe having previously fallen at the last-four stage twice in New York, and Ben Shelton having reached the semi-finals in Australia and the US. The 23-year-old Ben Shelton leads their head-to-head 3-1 and carries significant momentum following his massive victory over Carlos Alcaraz, though another grueling encounter is anticipated.
Pick: Shelton in five