Climate Change Could Triple the Size of Wildfire-Affected Areas Across Europe

New research suggests that the area of Europe affected by wildfires could triple as a result of climate change. Back-to-back heatwaves and an early drought have created tinderbox conditions in western Europe since early July, resulting in severe wildfires across France, Greece, Spain, and Belgium.

More than 20 people have lost their lives, including 14 in the Almeria wildfire in Spain and three Greek firefighters on Crete. Thousands of homes have been destroyed and over 300,000 people evacuated, while the UK has also faced unprecedented fire outbreaks following five heatwaves.

Data from the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) indicates that approximately 550,000 hectares have burned across the EU as of August 12, marking roughly two and a half times the 20-year average for this period. A study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) details how rising temperatures from climate change will increase wildfire risks.

In a low emissions scenario with a 1.8C temperature rise, researchers calculate about 39 percent more land would burn annually by the end of the century. Under a high emissions scenario where global temperatures rise by 3.6C, that figure climbs to approximately 192 percent.

“Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe,” said Maik Billing, researcher at PIK and lead author of the study published in Global Change Biology. Co-authors from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research modeled how human intervention can mitigate these effects, suggesting continued fire management improvements could reduce burned areas by 92 percent in a 1.8C future and 72 percent in a 3.6C future, though authors warn these estimates may prove optimistic.

Thomas Hickler, Senckenberg scientist and study co-author, emphasized that increased investment in wildfire management—such as crew training, equipment, and coordination—is vital, noting that extreme fires could eventually surpass our containment abilities.

Meanwhile, a report published by the Mayor of London and London Councils warns that extreme heat and climate change impacts could cost London up to £36 billion annually by the 2050s. High temperatures have already caused substantial economic losses through diminished productivity.