US Midterms Could Shift Transatlantic Tides, But Don't Expect a European Far-Right Reckoning

While the upcoming United States midterm elections appear to favor Democrats, with polls indicating a significant lead in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, analysts suggest that a Democratic victory would not fundamentally alter European elections. However, such an outcome could lead to improved transatlantic relations and potentially two adverse effects.

Firstly, a Democratic Congress might foster complacency among Europeans regarding their own far-right movements. Catherine Fieschi, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe specializing in European far-right politics, posits that a Democratic win would be interpreted as a sign of democratic resilience, potentially diminishing the perceived threat of far-right movements like Marine Le Pen's National Rally party in France. "It would introduce 'the idea that these things don’t mean the advent of a fascist regime'," she stated, suggesting a possible downplaying of the urgency to counter such movements.

Secondly, a Democratic victory could embolden US President Donald Trump to exert greater pressure on Ukraine to accept a deal with Russia that it may not desire. Fieschi noted that Trump might leverage the situation to push for a resolution that sacrifices Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, a move Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned would be a strategic error and which a majority of Ukrainians oppose. Trump has previously used US intelligence on incoming ballistics and Starlink satellite navigation against Ukraine and has echoed Russian calls for Zelenskyy's replacement.

The potential fallout for Ukraine is significant. A cut in French financial contributions to the European Union's budget, a potential policy of a Marine Le Pen presidency, could reduce Ukraine's foreign military aid by 3.5 percent, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. This would necessitate other allies to compensate for the shortfall.

Furthermore, European public opinion has shifted considerably regarding the US. A poll for the German think tank Bertelsmann Stiftung revealed that only 31 percent of Europeans now view the US as their "most trustworthy ally," a decline from 51 percent in 2024 when Joe Biden was in office. A significant 73 percent of Europeans believe the continent should "go its own way" rather than maintain close cooperation with the US, a sentiment shared by a clear majority on the center-right and right. This erosion of trust, formed over two Trump terms, is seen as difficult to reverse in a single congressional election, especially with an ongoing war in Europe.

Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris commented on the shift in European attitudes towards migration, suggesting that while European public opinion hardened independently, the US under Trump provided a more forceful tone. He noted a pivot from "induction and integration and benefaction to deterrence, border protection, increased returns and consequences if asylum is denied," which he believes played a role in Europe's own policy adjustments.

Marine Le Pen is currently leading in polls for the French presidential elections scheduled for April 18, with surveys indicating approximately 34 percent of the popular vote. Her potential policies include cutting French financial contributions to the EU, reducing military aid to Ukraine, and possibly exiting the euro in favor of a devalued franc, moves that could significantly impact the European project.